iPol

And So It Begins

2009-01-20T21:13:00.002-06:00

Incredibly, I have now hit the wall on Inauguration coverage on TV and the internet, so I can only imagine how normal people must feel about it by now. I really don't think I can watch another dance at another Ball tonight, so it is clearly time to call it a day.

But what a wonderful day to have witnessed. I have struggled to devise some fitting words to sum up the meaning and impact of this day, but haven't come up with anything even remotely near the mark. But the following comes closer than anything I have seen to meeting that purpose, and this is what I want to say:

[He] is here not only to sweeten the air...but to clear the infected atmosphere of American history itself, tainted with official sins and inherited guilt. He would cleanse the Constitution...[h]e altered the document from within, by appeal from its letter to its spirit, subtly changing the recalcitrant stuff of that legal compromise, bringing it to its own indictment. By implicitly doing this, he performed one of the most daring acts of open-air sleight-of-hand ever witnessed by the unsuspecting. Every one in that vast throng...departed with a new thing in [their] ideological luggage, that new Constitution [he] had substituted for the one they had brought there with them. They walked off...under a changed sky, into a different America.

~ Garry Wills, Lincoln at Gettysburg

Today was a wonderful day. There will, alas, be days to come that are terrible, and some that will be unbearable. The world is not perfected by virtue of this day. But it is different. It is better. And under this changed sky, in this different America, we will draw strength from our common purpose. And we will prevail.

A Much-Needed Upgrade

2009-01-20T20:25:00.006-06:00

Before:

and

After:

This cracks me up - it reminds me of those "Hello, I'm a Mac" ads.

Obama's First Official Act

2009-01-20T12:11:00.004-06:00

After escorting the Bushes from the Capitol, Barack Obama has completed his first official act, signing a Presidential Proclamation of National Renewal. And the quote from President Obama as he held the pen in his left hand and signed the document:

"I'm a lefty. Get used to it."

Spoken with a wry smile. YES!

Pandarus' Final Bow

2009-01-20T11:31:00.005-06:00

Text message from the Inaugural Committee:

"Barack Obama is now the 44th President of the United States. Please stay & watch the parade on the jumbotrons. Encourage your neighbors to exit the Mall slowly."

And speaking of exits, President Obama is escorting Mr. and Mrs. Bush from the Capitol to the helicopter which will take them to Andrews Air Force Base and a plane waiting to carry them back to Texas. As George Bush departs the scene, I am forcefully reminded of these lines:

What verse for it? What instance for it? Let me see:

"Full merrily the humblebee doth sing
Till he hath lost his honey and his sting,
And being once subdued in armed tale,
Sweet honey and sweet notes together fail."

As many be here of Pander's hall, Your eyes half out, weep out at Pander's fall. Or if you cannot weep, yet give some groans,
Though not for me, yet for your aching bones...Till then I'll sweat, and seek about for eases,
And at that time bequeath you my diseases.

~ William Shakespeare, Troilus and Cressida, Act V, Scene X

The Inaugural Address

2009-01-20T11:06:00.002-06:00

After Chief Justice Roberts blundered his way through administering the Oath of Office, President Obama rises to speak.

Here's the part about challenge I expected at the outset: war, economic crisis, healthcare, failing schools, dependence on foreign energy, climate change.

And then comes hope over fear. "Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of rebuilding America." "The stale political arguments of the past no longer apply." "As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals."

And too many other priceless lines to transcribe here. A great speech, and a good beginning to the Obama administration. This president is up to the challenge. And so are we.

Yes, we can.

President Barack Obama

2009-01-20T10:58:00.002-06:00

(The countdown is officially retired!)

Barack Obama has just been sworn in as the 44th President of the United States. From head to toe, I am a solid mass of goose bumps.

Vice President Joe Biden

2009-01-20T10:38:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 0

Joe Biden has just been sworn in as Vice President of the United States. As a Biden precinct captain during the campaign here in Iowa, I could not be more proud to know this man and to have supported him.

What a great day!

Almost Time

2009-01-20T10:21:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 0

Almost everyone has taken their place on the rostrum now; Michelle Obama and Jill Biden are making their way to their seats, and President Bush is walking through the halls of the Capitol to the witness the swearing in. Interesting to see Vice President Cheney in a wheelchair...

The President-elect will arrive shortly!

Expectations for Obama's Inaugural Address

2009-01-20T09:59:00.004-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 0

With his renowned gift of oratory, the expectations for Obama's inaugural address couldn't be higher, with most commentators expecting a combination of Jefferson's second inaugural, Lincoln's second inaugural, FDR's first, and JFK's inaugural all rolled into one.

No pressure.

Expect some astounding oratory, to be sure. But rather than get weedy about policy specifics, I think Obama's speech will endeavor to capture the essence of this day and its meaning for the country. Look for him to start out describing the challenges faced by the country at this moment, and work his way up to a thunderous conclusion about the ability of Americans to overcome any obstacle so long as they unite in common purpose.

The specifics will come during the State of the Union in a couple weeks' time.

The Senate Takes Its Place

2009-01-20T09:47:00.004-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 0

The members of the Senate are now taking their seats in the stands on the West Front of the Capitol. Favorite moment so far: the entry of Iowa's own Chuck Grassly, holding aloft a video camera to preserve the moment.

Obama is on is way, and will arrive at the Capitol shortly. Wouldn't you know he's the only guy in Washington today not coping with traffic gridlock?

Notes from Abroad

2009-01-20T09:29:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 0

A dear friend from Canada just sent me the following note:

Happy Emancipation Day!!! I am sure no one is happier than you...Congratulations

And to everyone around the world expressing more or less the same sentiment to their friends all across America, we say thank you. The America you, and we, remember is reborn this day.

About the Countdown

2009-01-20T09:14:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 0

As long-time readers of this page (both of you) will know, every post has begun with a countdown of George W. Bush's remaining days as president. When I put up iPol's first post, the count stood at 736. Today it is, finally, blessedly, at ZERO.

So what becomes of the countdown now? Glad you asked. I'll maintain the countdown in posts today up to Obama's swearing-in. And then the countdown will be retired.

And that is a very, very good thing.

Couchblogging the Inauguration

2009-01-20T08:52:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 0

It is (finally) Inauguration Day! I'm not in D.C. this morning (and don't you think I didn't try!), so I'll be blogging about the day from my couch. And if you're wondering what's the point about blogging about an event that anybody can see on a television screen, all I can say is that puts me about even with 90% of the people on and around the Mall this morning. Except that I'm sitting by a cozy fire with a nice cup of tea.

At the moment, the Obamas and the Bidens are in the White House having coffee with the Bushes. The Mall is already full to capacity, many Metro stations around the Mall and Capitol Hill are closed due to overcrowding, and the Inaugural Committee has sent the following text message:

Inauguration Update: If you are still in transit to the Mall, we suggest you head west of 14th Street.

14th Street would put you a long, long way from the West Front of the Capitol, by the way.

On Inauguration Eve

2009-01-19T18:09:00.001-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 1

Just a quck post tonight to note 3 things:
1) TODAY IS GEORGE W. BUSH'S LAST FULL DAY IN OFFICE! WOO-HOO!
2) I'll be blogging on the Inauguration throughout the day tomorrow.
3) How big a day is tomorrow in the public mind? Well, this should tell you something: my wife's 86 year-old mother's church is cancelling its weekly Bible study so everyone (who are mostly octogenarians, as well) can watch the inauguration without interruption.

BTW, did I mention that today is Bush's last day as president? *happy dance*

The Farewell Speech Bush Should Have Given

2009-01-18T11:18:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 2

George W. Bush gave his farewell speech last Thursday night. In many ways, it was the predictably clueless utterance of a president still incapable of recognizing his shortcomings and those of his administration, and unrepentant about the cost to the country and the world of his eight years in office.

So, since George W. Bush was unwilling or unable to candidly address his legacy, I have taken it upon myself to draft the speech he should have made last week. This is the speech he owed us.

Fellow Americans, and fellow citizens of the world, tonight I stand before you for the last time as President of the United States. The eight years of my administration have been turbulent, and many have wondered whether my untroubled demeanor during my time in office has demonstrated the calm certainty of one who has the courage of his convictions, or the delusional numbness of an incurious and epically untalented leader isolated within the confines of a political and psychological bubble.

History will render its verdict, of course. And it is to aid that final judgment that I stand before all of you tonight to tell you that in so many of the areas where I believed myself to be right, and where all of those around me whom I trusted assured me I was right, I must now, finally, acknowledge that I have been wrong. With distressing frequency, I have been fatally and disastrously wrong.

I came into office in 2000, of course, not as the result of victory at the polls, but rather at the fiat of an impetuous and misguided Supreme Court. Rather than acknowledging the trauma which the manner of my taking office inflicted upon our political institutions and civil society and endeavoring to heal those rifts, I unleashed a political operation from within the White House to fracture our country to the greatest extent possible, playing each side against every other side, knowing that the resulting tumult would leave me the freer to act as I would, regardless of the opinion of the majority. Indeed, the thinking went, when voters are split into microcosms of narrow interests, there is no majority. That was our strategy, and in the early years of my term, it worked only too well.

Our strategy worked so well, in fact, that I was able to squander a trillion dollar surplus with a tax giveaway to the wealthy like none other the world had ever seen. I was able to shred years of patient and skillful diplomacy that led the world tantalizingly near to a serious consensus to arrest the causes and begin to reverse the effects of global warming. I rolled up and discarded regulatory protections that for more than a half century had safeguarded our economy from the excesses that had too often in the past resulted in boom and bust cycles in which the benefits accrued to the wealthy in good times, and the pain in bad times piled upon the shoulders of the poor and the middle class.

And then came the attack against our homeland on September 11, 2001. To their everlasting credit, the American people, even in the midst of the horror and loss of that terrible day, overcame the petty and the transient, and united as one people in their resolve to triumph in the face of an unprovoked and dastardly attack. And inspired by the unity and resolve of our people, people all across the world united with us. It was an historic moment of courage and determination across the globe.

With the people united behind us, we took the fight to al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, vowing to never rest until justice had been visited upon those who carried out and aided the attacks against us. But at the very moment we had al-Qaeda’s senior leadership cornered in the caves of Tora Bora, at the very moment when the justice we had vowed was about to be achieved, I, as Commander in Chief, shifted the focus of our armed forces away from the crucial fight in Afghanistan and directed them to begin preparations for war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

Our victory over Saddam’s military was swift, and seemed to confirm the rightness of my decision to liberate Iraq. But I cannot deny the disappointment I experienced when it became clear that there were no weapons of mass destruction, the lynchpin of my decision to invade, found in Iraq. Many of my advisors assured me that these weapons were in Iraq, and were being aggressively stockpiled by Saddam Hussein. But there were others who cautioned that this might not have been the case, and the fact that they were not heeded, and, indeed, often suffered professional retribution for expressing their view, highlights the fact that my administration, my advisors, and ultimately, I myself, were too hasty in beginning a war that to this day has eluded my ability to honorably end.

The subsequent occupation of Iraq and the chaos and suffering it has brought to the people of that long-oppressed land has been a bitter disappointment to many, and to myself most of all. The men and women of our armed forces have always performed honorably and heroically in executing the mission I, as their Commander in Chief, ordered them to perform. The mismanagement of the occupation, the introduction of al-Qeada into Iraq when it had never been there prior to the invasion, the deprivation and violence experienced by the people of Iraq, the atrocities perpetrated at Abu Ghraib, were the result of no failure on the part of our armed forces, but rather, were the result of failure by senior officials of my administration, and, most of all, by myself, and I take full responsibility for those decisions and their consequences. The burden and blame are mine alone.

And as we struggled to contain crises abroad, we were struck once more by tragedy at home, this time not perpetrated by foreign terrorists, but by Hurricane Katrina. As the storm approached our shores and warnings of the potential for destruction began to be raised, my administration did not fulfill its obligation to protect the people who lay in Katrina’s path. Even as Katrina made landfall and the true scale of the devastation became apparent, the actions of my administration were, again and again, inadequate, belated, and, far too often, just too poorly executed to render the help that the people of the Gulf Coast so badly needed. Once again, these failures were ultimately mine, and, once again, the consequences were ultimately born by others.

The same can also be said of our current economic situation. In my administration’s desire to make good on its promise to reduce the role of government in the lives of the American people, we paid too much heed to the voice of Wall Street, and too little to the voice of Main Street. We cast aside the oversight required to prevent our financial markets from the excesses that, as I speak to you tonight, have brought them to their lowest pass since the 1930s. In doing so, we failed not only Main Street, but also the very Wall Street players we sought to help. The result and the ruin of that decision, the cost in lost jobs and bankrupt companies, lay all around us tonight.

And so it is that, as I leave office in a few days time, our country finds itself with two unfinished wars, the city of New Orleans still stricken years after Katrina made landfall, and our economy in tatters. The solution to all these problems will be left to my successor, and sincerely I wish him well in dealing with them. I have only this council to offer, the lesson I have learned too late as I reflect upon my term of office: all the American people have ever asked of their leaders in times of crisis is the assurance that the work of government will be done competently and impartially, and that the hard work and sacrifice of our people to meet the challenge of the day will not be squandered.

I have failed the American people in this, and hope and pray that my successor will be able to overcome the staggering challenges he faces as he assumes office. For all of this, to all of you, across our country and in nations around the world, I am so sorry. I am so very, very sorry.

The View From Now

2009-01-16T22:53:00.002-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 4

So, the day after President Bush gave his farewell address to the nation, how is the public reacting? Getting a bit mushy to see him limp off the stage, perhaps?

Not a bit of it. According to a new poll reported in the New York Times today, George W. Bush's current approval numbers are as low as they have ever been, with just 22% approving of his performance as president. Contrast this with Reagan and Clinton, who both left office with 68% approval numbers, or Bush's father, who went out with 54%, or even - and this has got to be just killing the neocons - Jimmy Carter, who left office with 44% approving of his performance.

Worse still, it seems that public disapproval of the president isn't limited to his performance in office; folks don't seem to care much for the president personally, either. According to the poll, Bush's negatives are at 60%, while his positives clock in only around the mid 20's.

Little wonder, then, that the president and his staff are pinning their hopes for redemption on the long view of history. Indeed, that's the only hope left them. But the degree to which attempts at shaping the judgment of history have gone more than a little over the top is perhaps the best indication that even the true believers are having a hard time convincing themselves, let alone history. A vivid case in point: a recent article in CQ Politics by Richard Connor postulates that history may one day look upon George W. Bush in the same light as Abraham Lincoln. Er, okay. And Ed Wood may one day be voted the greatest motion picture director of all time. But I wouldn't wait up nights.

BRRRRRRRR!

2009-01-15T09:29:00.002-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 5

Minus 18 Fahrenheit. That was the temperature when I left for work this morning. Add in a stiff breeze, and it felt like 37 below zero.

Ugh.

I have seen conservative blogs cite temperatures like these as the complete and unarguable refutation of the reality of global warming. Hogwash. I'm not about to conclude that climate change is a myth based on a cold snap. No, I am convinced that global warming is real. But I must confess that on days like today I am just ever so slightly inclined to think of it as our friend.

(Now) Its (Really) Official

2009-01-09T05:53:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 11

A joint session of Congress met yesterday to count and certify the votes cast by the electoral college for the 2008 presidential election. No surprise in the result: 365 votes for Barack Obama and Joe Biden, 173 for John McCain and Sarah Palin. The outcome now clears the last requirement for Barack Obama to take the oath of office on January 20.

I wish I could have been in the capitol to witness things yesterday. Not only would it have been uniquely historic to watch the electoral college tally entered in the journals of the House and Senate, but it also would have been great fun to watch Vice President Dick Cheney convene the session pursuant to the pesky Constitution and the laws of the United States. I bet you could almost see him gritting his teeth as he had to do it.

Just eleven more days. Wonderful!

It's Official

2008-12-16T06:14:00.002-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 35

In one of those quirky technicalities that seems a whole lot more important since the disputed election of 2000, the Electoral College voted yesterday to officially elect Barack Obama President of the United States.

The country may be forgiven for thinking that it did that job directly back on November 4, but the fact is that voters on that day chose a slate of electors pledged to one candidate or another, and yesterday they cast their votes - the ones that, under Article II, Section 1, Clause 4 of the Constitution, officially matter - for president. I'll spare you the remainder of the civics lesson, but do encourage you to have a look at the National Archives and Records Administration's excellent Electoral College webite.

Anyway, for those keeping score at home, here's how the electoral votes tallied up:

John McCain = 173
Barack Obama = 365

Congress will certify the electoral results as its first order of business when it reconvenes on January 8, 2009. Wait, did I say the results were now official? Not quite yet.

Heavy sigh.

ἀποθεόω (Apotheosis)

2008-12-01T20:45:00.008-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 49

OK, is it just me, or are expectations for Barack Obama's administration veering just a tad into unrealistic territory?

Up next: Obama as Joan of Arc and Albert Einstein.

Quote of the Day

2008-11-17T07:16:00.002-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 64

This one, from Tod Lindberg in today's Washington Post, puts a fork into the GOP's post election soufflé that Reaganism, or conservatism, or whatever is the euphemism of the day for "We're not really as dead as Herbert Hoover" is still alive and well and awaiting its inevitable comeback just over the next electoral horizon:

"I can see how supporting a bailout for the financial sector but opposing a bailout for Detroit is more conservative than supporting a bailout for both, but if that's the distinction that makes you a conservative these days, liberals ought to be pretty happy with their prospects."

"Oh, but wait!" you can hear GOP apologists nearly shouting, "Wait! Obama will overreach! And then voters will come thundering back to us! The GOP will rise again!"

Good luck with that as your reason for getting up in the morning, fellas. Enjoy your time in Wasilla. You've earned it.

Butterflies

2008-11-03T20:49:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 77

Election Day is tomorrow. I can hardly believe it. After months and months of a campaign by turns exhilarating, exasperating, inspiring, and finally, exhausting, tomorrow the votes will be cast and the only poll that matters will tell us who will be our next president.

In the predictions department, I'm forecasting an Obama victory in the range of anywhere from 299 electoral votes on the low side to a probable maximum of 360. It is certainly possible for the total to come out even higher, but I would be stunned at a landslide of that magnitude. I suspect I would not be the only one.

I do not expect the balloting tomorrow to mirror the close-run votes of 2000 and 2004. I believe the results will be decisive to the extent that the all-too-predictable voting irregularities in Ohio and Florida will not keep us from knowing the result until later in the week. We will wake up Wednesday morning knowing the winners and losers.

The key battleground states in the presidential race remain Florida, Missouri and Ohio. I know the MSM maintains that Pennsylvania is not yet in the bag for Obama, but they're wrong; Pennsylvania will be called early in the evening, and when it is you can uncork the champaign for Barack.

As to the House and Senate, I'm looking for a Democratic gain of around 30 seats in the House and perhaps 8 in the Senate. That will leave Democrats shy of the vaunted 60 seat "super majority" in the Senate that would make life a lot easier for President Obama, but, looking at the data, it is hard to see how we get more than 58 Democratic senators. We'll just have to dig in and make up the difference in the 2010 midterms.

I also believe that election night is ever so much more fun if one has a scorecard, so I've picked CQ Politics' slate of bellweather races from the list of innumerable alternatives out there:

House races

Conn. 4th: Rep. Christopher Shays (R) vs. Jim Himes (D) — No Clear Favorite
Indiana 3rd: Rep. Mark Souder (R) vs. Michael Montagano (D) — Leans Republican
Ohio 1st: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. Steve Driehaus (D) — No Clear Favorite
Ohio 2nd: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) vs. Vic Wulsin (D) — Leans Republican
Ohio 15th: Steve Stivers (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) — No Clear Favorite
Ohio 16th: Kirk Schuring (R) vs. John Boccieri (D) — Leans Democratic
Wyo. At Large: Cynthia Lummis (R) vs. Gary Trauner (D) — No Clear Favorite

Senate races

Georgia: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D) — Leans Republican
Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D) — Leans Republican
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Rep. Tom Allen (D) — Leans Republican
Oregon: Sen. Gordon H. Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D) — No Clear Favorite

Outcomes in these races will give us a pretty solid idea of whether the oft-anticipated electoral Perfect Storm of 2008 will materialize.

I'll be spending tomorrow morning working a double shift as a poll watcher here in Des Moines, then drumming my fingers the rest of the afternoon waiting for the first polls to close. Butterflies. I want this one like Christmas morning.

Finally, if you haven't taken advantage of early voting, DON'T FORGET TO VOTE ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4!

(can you hear me now?)

Everything You Need to Know

2008-10-27T07:06:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 85

If you're scratching your head at the McCain campaign's recent emphasis on Iowa, a state looking increasingly out of reach for the GOP, it turns out you're not alone. To wit, this quote from today's New York Times:

"[Senator McCain's] decision to campaign on Sunday in Iowa, a day after Ms. Palin campaigned there, was questioned even by Republicans who noted polls that showed Mr. Obama pulling away there. But it reflected how few options the campaign really has, as poll after poll suggests that Mr. Obama is solidifying his position."

I encourage you to read the rest of the Times article. It all adds up to desperate times for a desperate John McCain, who, as Michael Dobbs might put it, is reduced to clutching at straws, his campaign closing in front of him like a fist.

By the way, I voted Saturday. It felt good.

Declare Yourself

2008-10-03T11:49:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 109

This is what I want to say to you:

GOP Pundits Call "Political B.S." on McCain and Palin

2008-09-03T23:28:00.004-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 138

Tell us something we don't already know:

The audio is a little garbled, so here's a transcript:

Mike Murphy, former McCain advisor: "You know, because I come out of the blue swing state governor work. Engler, Whitman, Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. And these guys, this is all like how you want to (inaudible) this race. You know, just run it up. And it's not gonna work."

Peggy Noonan, former Reagan speechwriter: "It's over."

Murphy: "Still, McCain can give a version of the Lieberman speech to do himself some good."

NBC's Chuck Todd: "Don't you think the Palin pick was insulting to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, too (inaudible)."

Noonan: "I saw Kay this morning."

Murphy: "They're all bummed out."

Todd: "I mean, is she really the most qualified woman they could have turned to?"

Noonan: "The most qualified? No. I think they went for this, excuse me, political [B.S.] about narratives and (inaudible) the picture."

Murphy: "I totally agree."

Noonan: "Every time the Republicans do that because that's not where they live and it's not what they're good at and they blow it."

Murphy: "You know what's really the worst thing about it? The greatness of McCain is no cynicism and this is cynical."

Todd: "And as you called it, gimmicky."

Sarah Palin is the New Dan Quayle

2008-08-29T10:46:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 144

Reports in the media this morning are that John McCain has selected a Right-wing no-name politician to be his running mate: Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Two words: push over. Joe Biden will destroy Palin in a debate.

McCain's choice is clearly a dog-whistle move to try to cement his right flank, and does nothing to address McCain's main liability of being in the pocket of oil companies and other corporate interests and out of touch with every day Americans. Further, the selection of someone who has served less than two years in national office to be second in line for the oval office somewhat undercuts, to put it mildly, McCain's arguments about Barack Obama's readiness to lead the country.

So yes, I am happy this morning.

Hillary Clinton at the Convention: What's at Stake

2008-08-26T20:13:00.006-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 147

When Hillary Clinton takes the podium this evening to address the Democratic National Convention, she faces not only the assembled delegates, not only an army of media and the scrutiny of the nation and a good part of the world. Tonight, Hillary Clinton faces a choice.

The fact of the matter is that Hillary Clinton, even in defeat, is a formidable presence in the convention hall, in the U.S. Senate, and in the the Democratic party. But even more significant, in the aftermath of her presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton has acquired something she never truly possessed before: her own constituency. The stories and speeches from the campaign trail of women of every age, region, background, and yes, race, investing Hillary with the mantle of their aspirations for the future political, social and economic condition of women made for good copy, yes, but was far more than just hype. It was, in a way we have never had opportunity to witness before, hope: hope for millions, as audacious any dream on offer this cycle.

And therein lays Hillary's choice tonight. Having rallied a constituency to her side, what does she do with it: lead, follow, or even step away entirely?

To lead tonight, Hillary Clinton will need to make clear, as only she can, that the Democratic Party is absolutely, without qualification or caveat, Barack Obama's to command. Hillary Clinton would need to tell her supporters, in so many words, that to support her is to support Obama, and there is no place in her train for those who claim otherwise.

To follow, Hillary would need to do merely the reverse: say that, of course, she supports Barack Obama, because he won and party duty requires her to publicly campaign for him, and then spend the bulk of her address paying tribute to the efforts of those who sought a different outcome.

Finally, Hillary Clinton could make an entirely different choice: to focus not on the campaign just past, but on the future waiting to be won or lost in the outcome of this election. That would entail, of necessity, unqualified support for Barack Obama, but something more, and something greater still: a bona fide vision of what America can become as a result of this historic campaign. In short, she would need to make the speech she planned to make to the convention had she prevailed in the primaries, shorn of "vote for me" and infused, instead, with the promise of what can be if Democrats win up and down the ballot this fall.

Admittedly, such a speech would be a tall order for any politician, and for Hillary Clinton perhaps more than most. But if she were to deliver such an address, she would awaken tomorrow to find herself to be the leader she has always aspired to become.

Joe Says Hi

2008-08-25T05:00:00.000-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 148

From the inbox, attached to a note with the subject "Hello" and the sender line "Joe Biden":

Recycling

2008-08-24T19:56:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 149

This is why mankind invented the Sharpie:

Yes.

2008-08-23T07:37:00.003-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 150

Obama/Biden 2008.

I've been hoping I'd be able to type those words ever since it became clear that Barack Obama would be the Democratic nominee for president. Other words come to mind, as well:

...experience...leadership...political courage...character and integrity, and the strength of ideas...Joe Biden possesses all of these attributes, and then some. Crucially, Joe Biden also has the ability not just to articulate his proposals, but to take the fight to the Republicans and win. Need convincing? Go ask Rudy's campaign how they feel about Biden's renowned "a noun, a verb and 9/11" barb.

The 2008 presidential contest comes at a time of testing for our country, when our values, our character and our leadership are being challenged around the globe. This is a time not for big names, but for big ideas; not for poll-tested slogans, but for time-proven leadership; not for image, but for vision. Above all, this is a time for American renewal, to restore justice and humanity to the use of our power abroad, reason and civility to the conduct of our politics at home, and, most of all, peace and hope to a world that cannot achieve it without a rebirth of American leadership. This is a time for American greatness. This is the time for Joe Biden.

I was quite pleased with those words when I first published them. And I don't half mind the look of them today.

Get to Work

2008-08-06T19:40:00.003-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 166

Hmmmm. Probably not the rallying cry you thought it would be, Senator:

However, if you want to talk about your lack of a plan to address rising unemployment, we would be all ears.

Another "Momentary" Gaffe by McCain

2008-07-22T05:09:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 182

Barack Obama continues his overseas trip today, while John McCain continues the unending gaffe-fest that is his campaign for president. This paragraph from a story in the NY Times sums things up nicely:

[T]he images of the two presidential candidates offered a sharp contrast. In an interview on “Good Morning America” on ABC, Mr. McCain talked about securing the “Iraq-Pakistan border,” a momentary misstatement of geography. (American forces are pursuing terrorists along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border; Iraq does not border Pakistan.) His aides staged an event where he was seen riding in a golf cart in Maine with the first President George Bush, while Mr. Obama flew over Iraq in a helicopter with Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American military commander.

I find it striking that the Times goes so far out of its way to soften the impact of McCain's blunder on the “Iraq-Pakistan border” by referring to it as "a momentary misstatement of geography." The only reason this, or any of the other instances in the long list of McCain's errors in understanding the world he seeks to lead, could be considered "momentary" is that once again some one who knows better (an astoundingly long list which, in this case, would include any seventh grade student with a geography textbook) pointed out to McCain that Iraq and Pakistan do not share a border. McCain's vague and uncertain grasp of the facts of foreign policy - not the nuances, but the straightforward, schoolbook facts - is ongoing, and anything but momentary.

Not that any of this should be allowed to interrupt McCain's golf game, of course. Now watch this drive.

Doctor McCain Puts America on the Couch

2008-07-19T18:44:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 184

As you've no doubt heard by now, if you're part of the 76% of the population dissatisfied with the direction of the country, John McCain has the solution: jus' cheer up, fer garsh sakes!

If you're one of those sniveling malcontents who don't know how good you've got it at the moment, take a deep breath, lay back, and have a listen to Doc McCain as he diagnoses the country's ills:

Feel better now?

Quote of the Day

2008-07-16T06:19:00.003-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 188

This one comes from Doonesbury cartoonist Gary Trudeau, interviewed in the Washington Post:

WaPo: Any thoughts on this election year, from a satirist's point of view?

Trudeau: It's a beaut, because everyone's paying attention. But remember, the worst president in U.S. history is still in the White House. For Big Satire to ignore George W. Bush during his final year in office would be foolish -- and wildly ungrateful. He's done so much for our profession, and he may yet have another war in him. We still owe him our fullest attention.

Hear, hear!

Not The Way It Was Supposed To Play Out

2008-06-26T06:32:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 208

Remember the Republicans grand strategy to win back the House and Senate this year? The one that involved tying Democratic candidates nation-wide to a liberal, scary and unelectable Barack Obama? The strategy that bombed in seismic GOP losses in special elections in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi earlier this year?

Well, in case there's anyone who didn't already know this, that strategy is dead. How dead? So dead that Gordon Smith, Republican U.S. Senator from Oregon, is running an ad that touts, among his other qualities, that he has worked closely with and been praised by none other than Barack Obama.

See for yourself:

Taking the audacity of hope to whole new levels...

Obama Launches First General Election Ad

2008-06-20T05:00:00.001-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 213

Barack Obama has gone on the air nationwide today with a 30 second spot titled, "Country I Love." The ad features Obama speaking directly into the camera over a soft folk guitar soundtrack, and begins airing today in 18 states: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Here's the script:

I'm Barack Obama.

America is a country of strong families and strong values. My life's been blessed by both.

I was raised by a single mom and my grandparents. We didn't have much money, but they taught me values straight from the Kansas heartland where they grew up. Accountability and self-reliance. Love of country. Working hard without making excuses. Treating your neighbor as you'd like to be treated. It's what guided me as I worked my way up - taking jobs and loans to make it through college.

It's what led me to pass up Wall Street jobs and go to Chicago instead, helping neighborhoods devastated when steel plants closed.

That's why I passed laws moving people from welfare to work, cut taxes for working families and extended health care for wounded troops who'd been neglected.

I approved this message because I'll never forget those values, and if I have the honor of taking the oath of office as President, it will be with a deep and abiding faith in the country I love.

And here's the video:

"Lift The Off-Shore Drilling Ban" = Political Gimmick

2008-06-19T10:15:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 214

Yes, gas is over $4.00 a gallon. Yes, it sucks. But oil is a finite, non-renewable commodity which is ever more-rapidly nearing depletion. There is no way we're going to produce our way out of this crisis.

But what if we could? Wouldn't lifting all limits on off-shore drilling (and, what the heck, while we're at it, let's open up AWNR, too!) have an immediate impact on oil supplies, commodities market prices, and the cost of a gallon of gas?

No. Take a deep breath. The answer is no. A statement yesterday from Tom Harkin sums up why:

“Already over 25 percent of our domestic production comes from offshore fields, and the oil companies already have leases to produce on many more sites. In fact, there are currently more than 33 million acres of federal lands on the Outer Continental Shelf under lease, but not producing. Opening more offshore areas wouldn’t get us any new oil in less than 5 years, and then less than a 6-month’s supply. We can’t pretend that opening up more offshore drilling is the answer when you consider that Americans are paying well over $4 per gallon for regular unleaded and using about 20 million barrels of oil per day, over half of which is imported.

That's right: the fact is that oil companies already hold substantial leases to drill off-shore that they're not even using. Even assuming that ramping up off-shore oil production would have an immediate impact on energy prices (and it wouldn't), oil companies already have the ability to do so, without requiring further Federal action.

(BTW, wouldn't you know it takes a senator from Iowa, of all places, to make these points about off-shore drilling?)

Calls for lifting the "ban" on off-shore drilling are a political gimmick. Don't fall for it.

Get a Job

2008-06-19T09:07:00.003-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 214

For anyone who has ever dreamed of running off to join the political circus, Democracy for America has just the ticket: classes for aspiring campaign staffers, with emphasis on how to land a job with a political campaign. Classes begin next Wednesday, June 25; the press release below gives the details.

Have you ever worked on a political campaign?

Ever wanted to but never knew where to start?

It's not as hard as you might think. Next week DFA Night School is teaming up with Democratic GAIN to help you get hired on a campaign this fall.

Getting a Job on a Campaign
Wednesday June 25th - 8:30pm Eastern Daylight Time
CLICK HERE TO RSVP NOW

Campaigns are gearing up in all 50 states right now, and they need passionate, trained campaign staff. Next Wednesday, June 25, Democratic GAIN President Amy Pritchard will be joining DFA Night School for an hour long training on 'Getting a Job on a Campaign'.

Democratic GAIN is one of the nation's most effective organizations when it comes to connecting campaigns with talented staffers across the country. We'll be sharing research suggestions, tips on touching up your resume and how to build and leverage your professional networks into the perfect campaign job as part of this month's DFA Night School.

Night School is DFA's interactive online training program. Every month Night School brings top campaign experts right to your home at absolutely no cost to you. Just CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR NIGHT SCHOOL. Once you've signed up, you'll be sent the info you need to listen to Night School live either on your home computer or over the telephone. The training will be accompanied by a slideshow you can view online or download and print out ahead of time.

Sign up today and get a job taking back our country this fall.

No Republicans Were Harmed in the Making of this Film

2008-06-14T08:12:00.001-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 220

Obama Campaign Launches Web Site to "Fight The Smears"

2008-06-12T09:13:00.009-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 221

They've passed into campaign lore by now: unsubstantiated and untrue rumors that Barack Obama is secretly a Muslim, that he does not pledge allegiance to the American flag, and many more, circulated via email blasts and hammered endlessly on right-wing talk radio.

This week, the Obama campaign is launching a web site to specifically address these attacks. The site, titled "Fight the Smears," supplements the "Fact Check" page on the campaign's main website, and lists the rumors and the campaign's response in concise, even spare terms, bullet-point fashion.

I think this is something the Obama campaign simply has to do in the face of the rumor- and fear-mongering attacks launched against the candidate over the last year or so. But I am also convinced that these attacks would be much less potent, and more effectively countered, if Obama were to start an immediate, focused effort to introduce himself in detail to the electorate. As natural as it is to want to pull back a little from the relentless grind of the past 18 months of campaigning, Barack Obama and his campaign need to get out in front of the public with a specific campaign to tell voters, in depth, about the candidate's life story and values. Books, websites and the like will only go so far with this; the overall effort needs to be more focused and aggressive.

As of this moment, and in spite of months of rumor attacks, Barack Obama still retains the ability to define himself to the electorate at large. Every week that goes by without a concerted plan to replace rumors from anonymous emailers and right-wing shills with a factual, full-dimensional portrait of Obama as a flesh-and-blood human being, and not just a political and media icon, means ceding that advantage by continuing to leave the field open for these attacks to resonate. The rumor attacks launched against Obama will lose all effectiveness when suspicion bred of novelty gives way to familiarity with Obama as an individual.

The political environment abhors a vacuum. In order to effectively combat rumors and attacks about Barack Obama, he and his campaign need to dislodge lies with truth. That effort must begin now, in-depth, and, to the greatest extent possible, be conducted by Barack Obama himself, one interview, one living room TV, one voter at a time.

Pros and Cons of HRC 4 VP

2008-06-05T09:15:00.000-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 229

Charles Babington over at AP has drawn up a list of pros and cons Barack Obama might consider when mulling over whether to name Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Babbington's take isn't meant to be heavyweight analysis, but he does make a couple of good points. My favorites, quoting from the article:

Pro: She brings a proven team of fundraisers, planners and volunteers to the ticket.

Con: Why not get two for the price of one? To safeguard her husband's legacy and her own ambition, Hillary Clinton surely must campaign vigorously and wholeheartedly for you, whether she's on the ticket or not. Let her do so while you pick a running mate who brings other strengths.

Pro: She might put Arkansas in play. Bush won the state easily in 2004, but maybe the state's former first lady, whose husband's presidential library is in Little Rock, can put it in your column.

Con: She has dubious taste in music. Throughout Pennsylvania she played the theme from "Rocky," a movie about a white protagonist who beats up a black man before losing to him. And she made a Celine Dion tune her official campaign song. Enough said.

Its His Party Now, Part 1: Obama Bans Lobbiest Money at the DNC

2008-06-05T08:33:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 229

In a sign that the newly-minted Democratic nominee is moving fast to consolidate control over the party, an Obama spokesman announced today that the DNC will no longer accept campaign cash from PACs or federal lobbyists.

This is an important step for Obama to take, not only because it brings the national party in line with his long-standing campaign position on donations from lobbyists and PACS, but also because it indicates that Obama intends to move quickly to assert control over the party now that he is the nominee-in-waiting. Banning lobbyist money from the DNC also raises the ante against John McCain, who has well-known lobbyists such as Charlie Black running his campaign; all that remains is for Obama to challenge John McCain to ban lobbyist money from the RNC, which, come to think of it, wouldn't be a bad opening salvo for the general election campaign.

Her Last Bow

2008-06-05T05:27:00.001-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 229

From the inbox overnight:

"I wanted you to be one of the first to know: on Saturday, I will hold an event in Washington D.C. to thank everyone who has supported my campaign. Over the course of the last 16 months, I have been privileged and touched to witness the incredible dedication and sacrifice of so many people working for our campaign. Every minute you put into helping us win, every dollar you gave to keep up the fight meant more to me than I can ever possibly tell you.

On Saturday, I will extend my congratulations to Senator Obama and my support for his candidacy. This has been a long and hard-fought campaign, but as I have always said, my differences with Senator Obama are small compared to the differences we have with Senator McCain and the Republicans.

I have said throughout the campaign that I would strongly support Senator Obama if he were the Democratic Party's nominee, and I intend to deliver on that promise.

When I decided to run for president, I knew exactly why I was getting into this race: to work hard every day for the millions of Americans who need a voice in the White House.

I made you -- and everyone who supported me -- a promise: to stand up for our shared values and to never back down. I'm going to keep that promise today, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I will be speaking on Saturday about how together we can rally the party behind Senator Obama. The stakes are too high and the task before us too important to do otherwise.

I know as I continue my lifelong work for a stronger America and a better world, I will turn to you for the support, the strength, and the commitment that you have shown me in the past 16 months. And I will always keep faith with the issues and causes that are important to you.

In the past few days, you have shown that support once again with hundreds of thousands of messages to the campaign, and again, I am touched by your thoughtfulness and kindness.

I can never possibly express my gratitude, so let me say simply, thank you.

Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton"

Nothing Like It Before, Ever

2008-06-03T22:45:00.000-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 230

There is so much political news coming out of tonight's primaries, both in Iowa and in Montana and South Dakota. And I'll write about that. Tomorrow.

But I cannot end this day without reflecting on the incredible primary season that has now come to an end, and all that I have seen, and heard, and learned. I salute the candidates I met and who ran strong campaigns of conviction and substance. This has been a political season that has seen unprecedented runs for president by a Hispanic, a woman, and an African American.

Nothing like it before, ever. We'll be telling our grandchildren about all this one day. And they'll listen, and perhaps roll their eyes a bit, because in that day they will, happily, take these things for granted. But it is for us tonight, with all that has gone before and all the challenges that yet lay ahead, to take a moment to acknowledge these extraordinary days, this historic moment, and to say God Bless America.

Party Time in IA-03

2008-06-03T05:00:00.006-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 230

Looking for somewhere to let your political hair down after voting in the IA-03 primary tonight? Look no further! The Boswell and Fallon campaigns both will be holding election night parties for their supporters in Des Moines. Details follow.

Boswell Election Night Party
Beginning at 8:30 p.m.
Hotel Fort Des Moines
Wedgewood Room
1000 Walnut Street
Des Moines, IA

Lt. Governor Patty Judge will be on hand as a special guest, and Congressman Boswell will address supporters after the election results are in.

Fallon Election Night Party
Beginning at 9:00 p.m.
Raccoon River Brew Pub (upper level)
200 10th Street
Des Moines, IA

Party on!

Triple Witching Weekend

2008-06-02T10:26:00.017-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 231

The weekend just past will likely go down as a significant two days in this cycle's Democratic presidential nominating process, with three events combining to put their stamp on the color and shape of things as we near the end of the race.

First and foremost, there was the DNC Rules Committee meeting on Saturday. I don't have a verbatim transcript of the proceedings, but here is the gist, based on hand-written notes I made of key portions of the committee's televised deliberations:
"Shut up!"
"No, you shut up!"
"Make me!"
"Maybe I will! Gosh!"

Such elevated discourse aside, the substantive outcome of the meeting was that the delegate total needed to nominate has risen from 2026 to 2118, based on the seating arrangements for the Michigan and Florida delegations agreed to by the committee. The result was that Barack Obama's number of remaining delegates needed to nominate increased to 66, while Hillary Clinton's margin narrowed tantalizingly from "stupendously out of reach" to "outlandishly remote."

Incidentally, the committee vote on Michigan, by far the more contentious issue on the table, was 19-8; thirteen members of the committee had already publicly pledged support for Hillary Clinton, and, as the vote shows, they failed to keep their own block in line to vote for their proposal to deny any delegates to Barack Obama. Further proof, if any is needed, that, bravado aside, the fact that the nomination has slipped through Clinton's fingers is starting to register even on some of her most committed (and influential) supporters.

A maxim attributed to Otto von Bismarck maintains that there are two things you never want to allow people to see being made: laws and sausages. I think the Rules Committee meeting makes a powerful case for adding a third item to that list.

The second major event was Puerto Rico's primary, which Hillary Clinton won big. How big? So big that Barack Obama started the day needing 66 delegates to secure the nomination and ended it needing just 47. This result caused Hillary Clinton to proclaim, in an email to supporters, "Today in Puerto Rico, the voters spoke with a powerful voice to say that this race is not over yet."

Not over yet. But soon. As in, probably later this week. And no, this isn't the pundocracy speaking: it's Clinton's National Co-Chair (and former Iowa governor) Tom Vilsack, who told the Associated Press yesterday, "It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee. After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."

Last, but by no means least, Saturday marked the end of the second quarter fundraising period for the campaigns. Neither Clinton nor Obama have released their fundraising totals for this latest period quite yet, but those numbers will drive the outcome of this final stage of the race perhaps more forcefully than either the Rules Committee or the Puerto Rico primary. But we'll have to stay tuned for that.

Ready For Her Close Up, Or You Write the Caption

2008-05-29T08:06:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 236

Some photos are too priceless to pass up. A case in point: this photo taken yesterday by AP photographer Elise Amendola.

Worth quite a bit more than a thousand words.

Ed Fallon Versus The Empty Podium

2008-05-28T09:44:00.001-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 237

Tonight at 7:00 at the State Historical Center in Des Moines, the Progressive Coalition of Central of Central Iowa (PCCI) and Central Iowa Operation Democracy (CIOD) are conducting a "Candidate Forum" Q&A for the IA-03 Democratic primary. Both six-term incumbent Congressman Leonard Boswell and challenger Ed Fallon, the former state legislator, have been invited. As of this writing, only Ed Fallon has committed to appear; Congressman Boswell has declined the invitation. However, according to the Forum's sponsors, the show will go on nonetheless, with Fallon on stage opposite an empty podium.

Debates in primary elections, at least at the congressional district level, are quite frequently commonplace. The topics are usually local, the arguments often familiar, the terms of reference reliably predicable: incumbents argue for a continuation of their tenure, and challengers argue that it is time for a change, with both making their case largely on the basis that one of them has been in Washington for awhile.

Incumbents, of course, dislike primary challenges from within their own party, viewing them as distractions from the real job of winning their biennial general election campaigns, and so feel little inclination to indulge in debating primary challengers. There is a certain amount of legitimate political wisdom to this. Allowing a challenger who is usually less than a household name to share the stage with an incumbent can automatically bestow a legitimacy and stature upon the challenger that they would otherwise be hard pressed to achieve on their own, so incumbents are often understandably reluctant to bequeath such a gift to their rivals. Most election cycles, it's a no-brainer.

But there are also times when, facing scandal or otherwise unpopular in their districts, incumbents are obliged to engage their primary challengers, or risk, even in victory, the prospect of greater vulnerability going into the general election campaign. The question in the Iowa 3rd this year is whether Leonard Boswell, perceived by many in the Democratic base as too closely aligned with President Bush on a number of issues, is therefore sufficiently compromised as to require him to confront Ed Fallon's candidacy, or whether the institutional advantages of incumbency will allow him to waive Fallon off and cruise to a seventh term in a district that has already been tagged as Safe Democratic.

Clearly, Leonard Boswell believes anti-incumbency to be a malady strictly confined to Republicans, with no contagion beyond the watershed 2006 midterm elections that saw Democratic majorities returned to both houses of Congress for the first time in twelve years. He may be right, at least with regard to the general political environment of 2008. Ed Fallon, on the other hand, sees Boswell's record on Iraq and other national security matters as an issue he can use against the congressman. Given that Democratic primary election results are mainly driven by the party's activist base, for whom Iraq remains the hottest of buttons, he may be right.

And so tonight's event at the Historical Society presents a view of the entire primary campaign in microcosm: an incumbent who sees no need to engage his challenger, and the challenger left with no one to debate but an empty podium, confronting thin air.

A week from today we'll know the result of the IA-03 primary, and whether Boswell or Fallon correctly judged the mood of the district. But it is often said, particularly with regard to politics and government, that history is made by those who show up.

McCain and the New GI Bill

2008-05-22T15:25:00.013-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 242

The U.S. Senate is currently debating legislation that would enhance veterans' educational benefits. Commonly referred to as the "New GI Bill," the legislation, authored by Democratic Senator Jim Webb of Virginia, would pay for books and tuition at a four-year public university for anyone who has served at least three years in uniform since September 11, 2001. The bill passed the Housed by a huge margin earlier this month, and currently has 58 co-sponsors in the Senate, including 11 Republicans. You might think that, as one of the higher-profile veterans in the Senate, John McCain would be among those supporting this legislation. You would be wrong.

McCain opposes this bill, as does - surprise! - President Bush, who is threatening a veto. Their argument: the bill is too generous to veterans, and provides an incentive for those currently in uniform to leave the military at the end of their current enlistment in order to cash in.

To oppose the bill for those reasons is not only ludicrous, but deeply insulting to those serving our country in uniform. Do McCain and Bush really think that service men and woman, who have volunteered during wartime to wear the uniform, are re-enlisting only because they have nowhere better to go? The suggestion that those who daily risk their lives for this country and endure grave hardship for themselves and their families in the course of their multiple deployments overseas could possibly be so feckless that they would walk away from the military en masse solely to cash in on the educational benefits of one piece of legislation, that their dedication would be overthrown by the promise of a little more money for college, is the deepest affront toward our military men and women that could be conceived. In my book, anyone who puts his or her life on the line to serve our country deserves every benefit we can bestow, and far more than we currently offer. Nothing we can offer them is adequate when compared to the risks and sacrifices they shoulder, and the notion that we're being too generous in sending them through college after sending them into combat is patently absurd.

Speaking from the floor of the Senate today, Barack Obama took aim at Senator McCain over his opposition to this bill:

"I respect Senator John McCain's service to our country. He is one of those heroes of which I speak. But I can't understand why he would line up behind the president in opposition to this GI bill. I can't believe why he believes it is too generous to our veterans. I could not disagree with him and the president more on this issue. There are many issues that lend themselves to partisan posturing, but giving our veterans the chance to go to college should not be one of them."

(video of Obama's remarks can be found here.)

Senator McCain was quick to issue an angry reply to Obama's remarks. But McCain's rejoinder didn't come from the Senate floor: it came via press release from California, where John McCain is too busy raising campaign cash to even be bothered to return to the Senate to participate in the debate over this bill and have the courtesy, to say no more, of going on the record as voting against it. Such is the judgment and conduct of the man who is telling America that he can be trusted to do a better job than Barack Obama as Commander in Chief of the armed forces.

Kentucky and Oregon: Virtual Spin Room

2008-05-21T05:33:00.004-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 243

The morning after the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, here's what the candidates want you to think:

Hillary Clinton

Once again tonight, you and I stood together and showed America what we're made of.

Every time we win another state, we prove something about ourselves and about our country. And did we ever prove something tonight in Kentucky.

We showed America that the voters know what the "experts" will never understand -- that in our great democracy, elections are about more than candidates running, pundits commenting, or ads blaring.

They're about every one of us having his or her say about the path we choose as a nation. The people of Kentucky have declared that this race isn't over yet, and I'm listening to them -- and to you.

Your unshakeable commitment to that principle and your willingness to keep forging ahead inspire me every day. Let's keep supporting one another in these crucial days ahead.

All the best,
Hillary

Barack Obama

The polls are closed in Kentucky and votes are being counted in Oregon, and it's clear that tonight we have reached a major milestone on this journey.

We have won an absolute majority of all the delegates chosen by the people in this Democratic primary process.

From the beginning, this journey wasn't about me or the other candidates. It was about a simple choice -- will we continue down the same road with the same leadership that has failed us for so long, or will we take a different path?

Too many of us have been disappointed by politics and politicians more times than you can count. We've seen promises broken and good ideas drowned in a sea of influence, point-scoring, and petty bickering that has consumed Washington.

Yet, in spite of all the doubt and disappointment -- or perhaps because of it -- people have stood for change.

Unfortunately, our opponents in the other party continue to embrace yesterday's policies and they will continue to employ yesterday's tactics -- they will try to change the subject, and they will play on fears and divisions to distract us from what matters to you and your future.

But those tactics will not work in this election.

They won't work because you won't let them.

Not this time. Not this year.

We still have work to do to in the remaining states, where we will compete for every delegate available.

But tonight, I want to thank you for everything you have done to take us this far -- farther than anyone predicted, expected, or even believed possible.

And I want to remind you that you will make all the difference in the epic challenge ahead.

Thank you,

Barack Obama

Leonard Boswell's Change of Heart on Iraq

2008-05-20T10:12:00.003-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 244

Leonard Boswell had a sit-down with reporters and editors at the Des Moines Register last week. Not surprisingly, the topic of Iraq and the war came up, and here's what the Register reported as Boswell's thoughts on the matter:

The Des Moines Democrat, who is facing a challenge in the June primary, said in a meeting with Des Moines Register editors and reporters that he met with President Bush and Bush's war council in 2005.

During that meeting, which included other lawmakers, Vice President Dick Cheney, and then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Boswell said, he for the first time believed the administration had no plan for withdrawal.

"It's been that way ever since. That's when I started saying this is not right. This is wrong. This is doubly wrong," Boswell said. "So, I rethought the whole situation and I think it's time for us to come out of there."

Boswell, of course, voted to authorize the use of force in Iraq, so his change of heart is a good thing. But questions remain, and to my mind one of the main points left unaddressed by the congressman is why it took him 33 months to reverse course on a war that had clearly been a disaster almost from the first days of Shock and Awe.

Further thoughts on this at Huffington Post.

Iowa Democratic Chairman Brennan to Endorse Obama

2008-05-20T07:29:00.003-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 244

The Iowa Democratic Party has issued a press release announcing that state party chairman Scott Brennan will endorse Barack Obama for president later today.

The timing of the announcement, scheduled for 10:00 AM at party headquarters in Des Moines, makes sense, particularly for Brennan. With Obama's rally in the East Village tonight, an endorsement this morning guarantees Brennan a spot on the rostrum and probably an intro slot before Obama takes the stage. If CNN and MSNBC don't cut away for a few more commercials while Brennan is speaking, it could turn out well for him.

Add one more super delegate in Obama's column.

Iowa Legislative Recap

2008-05-16T05:00:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 248

A tip 'o the hat to the crew over at Progressive States Network, who have been keeping track of bills that pass, and don't, in state legislatures around the country. They've put together a terrific summary and analysis of the achievements and disappointments of the Iowa legislature this session.

PSN's recap looks at bills concerning Iowa's health care, education, clean energy, worker's rights, home foreclosures, veteran's affairs, students and voter protection.

Check it out here. Required and essential reading for Iowans!

John McCain's Iraq 2013 Fantasy Land

2008-05-15T15:41:00.003-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 249

John McCain gave a speech today describing the policy he would pursue as president towards our military involvement in Iraq.

The speech, at least as it regards Iraq, is nothing short of fantasy. Of the commentary out on the web following the speech, none hits the mark nearly as well as the analysis published on the Huffington Post by none other than my original presidential candidate of choice, Joe Biden.

I found the following excerpt to be particularly on target:

John McCain revealed today that he has no plan -- none -- to get us out of the mess the president has created. Senator McCain said that it is important for presidential candidates to "define their objectives and what they plan to achieve not with vague language but with clarity." But especially when it comes to Iraq and Afghanistan, the picture he painted today of where he hopes to be by 2013 is totally divorced from reality and there is zero clarity about how he would get there. It's beyond being vague: John McCain is totally silent about how he would realize his rosy vision for 2013.

It's like saying by 2013, every American will be a millionaire and there will be peace on earth. Wishing will not make it so. The last things Americans need now are empty promises. They need, and our security demands, a concrete plan of action that brings the war in Iraq to an end without leaving chaos behind.

The entire piece can be read here.

It's good to see Joe Biden is starting to reengage in the broader political debate as we near the close of the primary calendar. His experience from years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as well as his devastating instinct for the Republicans' political jugular, make Biden a uniquely powerful voice in the upcoming campaign against John McCain.

Since dropping his own presidential campaign in January, Biden has remained publicly uncommitted in the nomination fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but I think that all Democrats, regardless whom they support for the nomination, can be glad that we've got Joe Biden on our side.

Talking to Iran: Bush Administration's Divided Voice

2008-05-15T12:39:00.019-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 249

Addressing Israel's national legislative body, the Knesset, today, President Bush spoke these words:

"Some seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along.

"We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: 'Lord, if I could only have talked to Hitler, all this might have been avoided.' We have an obligation to call this what it is - the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history."

Rhetorically, of course, this is known as a straw man argument, in which the speaker posits an opinion held by unnamed persons, and then uses that as an occasion to discredit the argument and cast aspersion upon anyone who might disagree with them. Logically, the straw man argument is categorized as fallacious.

President Bush is an old hand at this practice, so his use of the straw man fallacy comes as no surprise. What ought to cause some astonishment, however, is that the president should engage in this tactic just one day after his own Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, had this to say about Iran, one of the nations the president includes in his "Axis of Evil":

"We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage . . . and then sit down and talk with them. If there is going to be a discussion, then they need something, too. We can't go to a discussion and be completely the demander, with them not feeling that they need anything from us."

Setting aside, for the moment, the central question of whether Bush or Gates is espousing the better policy approach to Iran, let me ask this: is it too much to expect, even from this administration, that the president and his principal adviser on national defense to be on the same page about how to address a critical international challenge?

It is small wonder, in the circumstances, that other nations - both friendly and unfriendly - regard the prospect of diplomacy with this administration with uncertainty, and have lost confidence in the United States as a negotiating partner. Whether by design, or, as is far more likely, by inattention and incompetence, this administration shows, time and again with this as but the latest example, that it cannot be relied upon to speak with a unified voice to the international community. Let me emphasize: this is not an example of the president being contradicted by an opposition member of the House or Senate, but rather the president and his secretary of defense contradicting one another in statements made on successive days.

This appalling spectacle is yet another sad reflection upon the United States, and a further indication, as if one were needed, of the scale of the task looming before the next president of extricating the country from the mire into which George W. Bush and his administration has driven us.

The GOP's Nightmare in Mississippi

2008-05-14T10:47:00.015-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 250

As if warning sirens weren't already blaring at every level in the Republican party this year, last night's Democratic victory in a special election in Mississippi's first congressional district has sent the GOP into full-fledged Tsunami disaster mode.

I've been combing through a thesaurus this morning, searching for a single word that might do justice to the scale and impact of this defeat for the GOP. I'm coming up with some contenders, so far, but nothing that quite nails it:

...beaten...overcome...overpowered...overwhelmed...

After special elections earlier this year that saw Republicans go down to defeat in long-held districts in Illinois and Louisiana, last night's loss by Republican Greg Davis to Democrat Travis Childers was everything the GOP feared. The MS-01 is reckoned to favor Republicans by 10 points more than the country as a whole; that is, if a Republican would garner 60 percent of the vote nationally (and, yes, you can bet that is a big, fat hypothetical this year), then s/he would likely garner 70% in the MS-01. The seat had been in the Republican column since 1995. George W. Bush took the district with 62% of the vote in 2004. By every definition, the MS-01 should have been a safe Republican seat, this year, or any other.

...conquered...crushed...routed...trounced...

Notwithstanding, Democrat Childers beat Republican Davis by an eight point margin, 54% to 46%. This in spite of the fact that both the state and national Republican party poured everything they had into this race: Vice President Cheney emerged from his undisclosed location to campaign for Davis the day before the vote; Republican governor and former RNC Chairman Haley Barbour stumped for Davis; so did conservative darling and former GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee; the GOP's presumptive presidential nominee John McCain recorded robocall messages for Davis, as did President Bush himself.

...vanquished...subjugated...shattered...ruined...

Not even an ad campaign seeking to identify Democrat Childers as Barack Obama in disguise - the supposed Republican trump card for the fall campaign - had an impact. Indeed, there is speculation that the ads may have spurred African-American Democrats to a larger than normal turnout.

...disaster...catastrophe...fiasco...shambles...

The result is that the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives has further shifted in the favor of the Democratic party, which now holds 236 seats to the Republicans' 199. Of those 199 GOP seats, 25 will be open due to retirement of Republican incumbents, as opposed to just 7 open Democratic seats. And the Democrats' Congressional campaign organization has plenty of money to spend on House races in the fall, with more than $44 million cash on hand as of this past March 31. Their GOP counterparts, on the other hand, have about $7 million in the bank.

...devastation...calamity...farce...failure...flop...

Republicans aren't even trying to spin this one:

"'Some people in the conference, to some extent, have been complacent to waking up to how badly the brand was damaged in 2006,' Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.), a leader of a conservative coalition, said in a recent interview." (Washington Post)

"'The results in Miss.-01 should serve as a wake-up call to Republican candidates nationwide,' said House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio. 'As I’ve said before, this is a change election, and if we want Americans to vote for us, we have to convince them that we can fix Washington.'" (National Journal)

Republicans can fix Washington? With John "100 Years in Iraq Would be Fine with Me" McCain carrying the GOP standard in November? Good luck with that pitch, Congressman Boehner.

...bleak...hopeless...despondent...doomed...

The Footnote Primaries Begin

2008-05-13T08:12:00.007-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 251

West Virginia votes today in the first of what may reasonably be called the Footnote Primaries of the Democratic nomination process.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying that the voters of West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico don't matter, or that the outcomes in these primaries will not be important; far from it. But the importance of these primaries now lies not in their potential to determine the party's nominee - that question was (finally) settled in Barack Obama's favor last week by North Carolina and Indiana - but rather in shaping the end of the campaign and taking a big role in determining the conditions under which the Democratic Party begins its general election campaign. And the impact of these primaries could be crucial in whether the party and its nominee comes out of the gate against John McCain and the GOP roaring, or whimpering.

West Virginia, for its part, is expected to go overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton over presumptive nominee Barack Obama today. Not much suspense there, but the question is how the two candidates will spin the result. For example, if Clinton gains a 25 point victory and in her remarks tonight proclaims it as another victory of the little guy against the elitists, and does the same again after Kentucky next Tuesday, where she is also favored to win, and if Obama uses expected victories in Oregon and South Dakota to continue blasting Clinton for representing what he calls the Old Politics of Washington, then the Democratic Party is likely in for a miserable summer.

On the other hand, these final six contests can function as the opening of a strong general election campaign. No matter what the outcomes in the individual primaries, if the candidates opt for civility in their rhetoric and salute a Democratic electorate engaged as rarely before, then the process of unifying the party begins in earnest, and woe betide John McCain's Freeride Express.

It all comes down to whether the candidates are able to keep their eye on the ball over the next three weeks, something they have not always been very good at doing.

So these final six contests, while footnotes in determining the answer to the ultimate question of who will be the Democratic nominee, can still punch above their weight in raising, or lowering, the hurdles the nominee must jump to bring the party together under their banner. Call them footnotes in large print.

Prelude to the End of the Game

2008-05-07T08:23:00.017-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 257

Last night's primary results from North Carolina and Indiana provide one of the campaign's more resonant moments. Hillary Clinton's whisker-thin win in Indiana, coupled with Barack Obama's decisive win in North Carolina, looks as if it may have the potential to recast the Democratic race to a degree not seen since the first contests in January. And, yes, if I could make that statement any more qualified, I would.

The problem with making unqualified, sweeping statements is, of course, that the race itself has tended so little toward the definitive. Even so, some factors are beginning to jell that portend the shape of the campaign at its final conclusion.

There's the math, to begin with. According to AP, Barack Obama took 94 delegates last night, compared with Hillary Clinton's 75, which leaves him about 185 delegates short of the 2,025 needed to nominate (the delegate score now is Obama 1,840 - Clinton 1,688). There are six contest remaining, with a total of 217 pledged delegates up for grabs. The Obama campaign circulated a memo earlier today claiming that Clinton would need to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to draw even with Obama; thanks to the proportional award rules of the Democratic party, such overwhelming victories would only be likely in the event that Obama's name disappeared from the ballot altogether.

And then there are the remaining uncommitted super delegates, about 270 of them. One of the most damaging aspects of last night's results for Hillary Clinton is the weakening of her case to this audience. Consider that in the run up to the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Clinton had the wind at her back coming out of Pennsylvania, and Obama had been enduring the most miserable four weeks of his political career. And the result? Obama crushed Clinton in North Carolina, where her campaign, and her husband the former president, had been working frantically to engineer an upset victory, and Clinton came out the winner in Indiana by a mere 18,440 votes out of 1,265,028 total votes cast. That is a margin of 1.4%, and that was the good news for Clinton last night. Given the the favorable political environment for Clinton, a question being asked today is if Hillary couldn't land a body blow on Obama in these circumstances, when could she be expected to do so? That doesn't lend itself to the electability argument Clinton has been pressing on the super delegates.

Finally, there's the money, or, in Clinton's case, the lack of it. It emerged earlier today that Clinton has made loans of a further $6.4 million to her campaign, on top of the $5 million she had already loaned back in January. Following last night's results, and in light of the fact that many of her biggest donors have already contributed the maximum possible amount toward the primary campaign, where will the money come from to fund Hillary Clinton's campaign?

To sum up: in order to turn things around and deny Barack Obama the nomination, Hillary Clinton needs primary votes that aren't there, super delegates that aren't being persuaded by her electoral performance, money that can't be found and time which has all but run out.

But, this campaign being what it is, those factors are unlikely spell the immediate conclusion one might think. Lurking in the calendar is a May 31 meeting of the Democratic Party rules committee, where the issue of what to do about leapfrogging Michigan and Florida will be, to put it mildly, debated. And then there's the party's Credentialing Committee meeting later in the summer. And then there's the convention in August.

It ain't over 'til it's over. And over. And over...

Polls: Clinton Erases Obama's National Lead

2008-05-02T09:19:00.009-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 262

Two polls released today show Hillary Clinton has made progress over the last month in narrowing rival Barack Obama's lead in national preference polls.

The polls show Obama leading Clinton by very narrow margins nationally, with results well within the margins of error. In one poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center, Obama leads Clinton 47% - 45%, while in the other, conducted by CNN - Opinion Research Corp., Obama leads Clinton 46% - 45%. These numbers are in line with Real Clear Politics' national averages, showing Obama currently leading Clinton by about 1.6%.

The numbers in these polls do not come as a surprise after what has been a bruising month for the Obama campaign, following a significant loss to Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary and renewed media attention on the Jeremiah Wright non-story. If anything, these numbers re-emphasize the importance of next Tuesday's voting in Indiana and North Carolina in either altering or reinforcing the current narrative of the campaign for both Clinton and Obama.

A Gallup poll taken early last month showed Obama with a 9% lead over Clinton nationally.

The Bush-McCain Challenge

2008-04-30T13:59:00.004-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 264

From today's inbox:

With the Obama-Clinton primary still underway, John McCain has largely gotten a free ride in the media. He's coming to Des Moines on Thursday [May 1, 2008 - ed.], hoping to get lots of fluff media coverage. Well, we're not going to let that happen.

MoveOn members in your area will be putting on a fun event called The Bush-McCain Challenge to make sure local voters and the media know that a McCain presidency would equal Bush's third term. We'll have a carnival-style table where people can answer questions and win prizes if they can tell the difference between Bush and McCain's stances on issues. Media will be invited to come.

It will be fun, and the more the merrier. Event details are here:

WHAT: The Bush-McCain Challenge
WHERE: 501 Grand Avenue, across from the Convention Complex, Des Moines, IA, 50310
WHEN: Thursday, May 1 from 12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m.

We'll supply the questions and decorations. We need your help to ask the questions at the table, or to hand out flyers to people walking by—promoting the challenge. Local media will be invited and national media who fly around with McCain will receive photos and local news clips of the event to incorporate into their reporting. We'll also put the best clips from these events around the nation on YouTube.

We saw the impact of regular people fighting back locally during President Bush's Social Security privatization tour. In town after town, we and coalition partners matched or beat Bush's media coverage by planning events surrounding his local visit that showed why he was wrong.

The Bush-McCain Challenge will be a lot of fun. Together, we'll make sure voters realize that electing McCain would, in effect, be voting for Bush's third term.

We hope you can join us for this event. Thanks for all you do.

–Adam G., Lenore, Anna, Noah, Ilyse and the MoveOn.org Political Action Team
Wednesday, April 30th, 2008

[hyperlinks expurgated]

CQ Politics Rates IA-03 'Safe Democrat'

2008-04-28T14:54:00.004-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 265

While the primary campaign between incumbent Congressman Leonard Boswell and challenger Ed Fallon goes on, Democrats in Iowa's Third Congressional District (IA-03, as they say in the trade) have something they can feel good about, regardless of which candidate they support: the IA-03's seat in Congress is most unlikely to fall into the Republican column come November.

This analysis comes from CQ Politics, the campaign-geek (as opposed to governing-geek) branch of the non-partisan Congressional Quarterly news organization. CQ points out that even though Congressman Boswell won his 2006 re-election bid against Republican State Senator Jeff Lamberti by a 5% margin, making his one of the slimmer victories in an election that saw not one defeat of an incumbent Democratic member of Congress, the district isn't being seriously targeted by the GOP this time around.

Along with Boswell's massive financial advantage - the Congressman ended March with a better than 41-to-1 cash-on-hand edge over Fallon - the district's non-competitive political environment versus the GOP gives the incumbent even less incentive to debate or otherwise directly engage his primary challenger in the run-up to the June 3 election.

I've got my own opinion on the Boswell-Fallon race, but that's the subject of another post (or twelve). In the meantime, though, barring some unforeseen political seismic event, the IA-03 looks to remain Blue into the next Congress.

Chris Dodd on the Nomination Fight: "Bring this to a Close Within the Next Month"

2008-04-25T22:25:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 269

Ran across this interesting interview with Chris Dodd (apologies for the commercial at the beginning):

That Was The Week That Was

2008-04-25T09:25:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 269

A few quick glances askance going into the weekend.

Hillary Clinton's win in Pennsylvania on Tuesday is still being hotly debated: does this mark the beginning of the end for Barack Obama, or is it, despite the 10-point margin of victory for Hillary Clinton, her last hurrah on the way to the political wilderness? Charles Krauthammer of the Washington Post, among others, takes the former view, while Madison Powers of Congressional Quarterly sees Clinton limping out of the Keystone State "broke, bitter, and diminished in national stature."

Meanwhile, a new poll from Indiana, which is shaping up as the next battleground and goes to the polls on May 6, comes up a virtual tie with Obama at 48% and Clinton at 47%. AP notes, "A similar poll conducted March 31-April 2 found 49 percent support for Clinton, with Obama's support at 46 percent. The new poll asked which candidate had run the more negative campaign, with 48 percent saying Clinton, 23 percent Obama and 21 percent equal."

John McCain, meanwhile, continues coasting on the FreeRide Express. McCain's wink-and-nod plea to the North Carolina GOP not to run an anti-Obama ad is the presumptive nominee's latest "maverick" moment: he gets to promote himself as an above-the-fray statesman while at the same time raising the profile of the ad that he ostensibly opposes and that the NC GOP runs anyway. I'm beginning to wonder whether McCain is actually starting to buy into the damaged Democrats theme that been the flavor of the week in the mainstream media, and thinks as a result that his rise in the poll reflects something other than just seven weeks of nobody running against him. If so, here's a word of advice for Senator McCain: though it is dragging on longer than most expected, the Democratic nomination battle will end in plenty of time for the party to unify around its eventual candidate, and against you. When that happens, you will find yourself at the wrong end of the toughest campaign you've ever imagined. Enjoy the holiday while you may.

Q&A: 10 Questions for a Pennsylvania Voter

2008-04-22T13:19:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 272

With voters going to the polls today in what is expected to be a record turnout for a Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, I wanted to get a sense of what was on the minds of voters - or at least one voter - in the Keystone State.

Enter Laurenn S., a 30-something professional woman who lives and works in the Center City section of Philadelphia. Laurenn was good enough to take time out of her day to participate in an email interview with me after casting her vote this morning.

iPol: Who are you supporting in the Democratic primary, and why?
Laurenn S.: I am supporting Senator Barack Obama for his vision, his intelligence, and his inspirational qualities. He is my generation’s JFK. Senator Obama sees politics as something good, as a way for the citizens of this country to get involved and make a difference in their own lives. I also feel he can arouse the world populace to think differently about their own communities, to see a future that is filled with peace and security. Some people would say these are big dreams that they are unattainable, Senator Obama knows that it will not be easy, but you have to dream big in order to achieve big. In the words of Martin Luther King, “if you can’t run then walk, if you can’t walk then crawl, but by all means keep moving.” It is just not about achieving health care for all or getting the gas prices down, it is about how we want to live as a people, how we see ourselves and the world.

iPol: You live in Pennsylvania’s 2nd Congressional District, where nine delegates are at stake, the most of any Congressional District in Pennsylvania. This is what Congressional Quarterly had to say about the PA-02 in a recent article:

“The 2nd is almost certain to go even more heavily for Obama than the neighboring 1st District. It stretches from ‘Center City’ to West Philadelphia, and more than 60 percent of the residents are black. Not only is this likely to be Obama’s best district, but it is by far the most delegate-rich, which should help him offset Clinton wins in districts outside the Philadelphia region. Obama will win at least six of the nine delegates, and he would beat Clinton 7-2 if he exceeds 72.2 percent of the district vote. CQ Politics Prediction: Obama 7 (delegates), Clinton 2 (delegates).”

Given CQ’s description, is there a perceptible Obama vibe in your neighborhood? Do people seem excited and engaged in the campaign? If so, how does that show?
Laurenn S.: There is definitely electricity in the community, people are excited and engaged. Independence Hall and the National Constitution Center were bookends with Senator Obama in the middle giving a speech that encompassed this country’s past and the hope for the future; where we have been and where we can go as a people and as a nation. 35,000 people listened to that speech, people were moved beyond words, tears were flowing and possibility was in the air. Yet it was just not about big speeches, I saw a woman wearing Obama banners and signs as clothing, people dressing their dogs with Obama slogans; it seems even the animals are for Obama! So whether at a big event or just people on the street there is something going on that cannot be explained, granted this is in the Philadelphia area and Clinton is poised to win Pennsylvania, but the vibe that I am feeling bodes well for Obama in November.

iPol: Other than last year’s campaign here in Iowa, the last six weeks in Pennsylvania have been the longest period of sustained campaigning in any state during the Democratic primary. What’s been your reaction to all the media, ads, rallies and general hoopla during this time: has it been exciting and fun for you, or are you heaving a sigh of relief that it is finally coming to an end?
Laurenn S.: In the beginning it was exciting, who would have thought that Pennsylvania would be playing a huge role in the primaries. After a while however, nothing new was being talked about, by the media or by the candidates themselves. I just started to tune out; it was dragging on too long. I have to say though that today, the excitement and energy returned, when I went into the voting booth I knew it was an historic moment. Whether you are voting for Clinton or Obama, you are contributing to history in a very profound way.

iPol: Did you do any campaign volunteering (phone banks, precinct walking, licking envelopes) in the runup to the election? If so, what was that like for you, and what was the reaction you encountered with other voters you may have spoken with in the course of volunteering?
Laurenn S.: I did attend a couple meetings, but I did not volunteer as much as I would have liked. What I discovered however when attending these rallies/meetings was the diversity in the group. A majority of the people, young, old, black, white, women, and men, said they never participated in a campaign before, never contributed time or money, but they just felt compelled to get involved. Obama inspires activism, whether going door to door, stuffing envelopes, or just contributing $5.00 dollars.

iPol: What has been the most important issue to you during the Pennsylvania primary campaign, and how has it influenced your choice of whom to support?
Laurenn S.: The most important issue for me is Foreign Policy. Senator Obama seems to have a more balanced approach. His judgment in my estimation is right on. Strong leadership is about not being afraid to talk to your enemies. It does not mean you are giving in or that you are weak. Senator Obama has the confidence and intelligence to know when to compromise and when not to. What is the saying, “keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.”

iPol: Overall, what has been the single biggest influence on your vote during the Pennsylvania primary campaign: endorsements, TV ads, speeches, or something else?
Laurenn S.: I would have to say speeches and how the candidates react to different situations; how they handle a bad week and if they wallow in hypocrisy. I am looking for a different tone, something fresh and new. Speeches are not my only influences, issues are very important, but when the candidates have similar plans, their vision becomes a vital part in my decision making process.

iPol: Speaking of endorsements, a lot has been said about Governor Ed Rendell and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton, and about U.S. Senator Bob Casey’s endorsement of Barack Obama. For you and other Pennsylvania Democrats you’ve spoken to, how much influence do these endorsements have on how people actually vote?
Laurenn S.: I don’t really think endorsements matter much. It is interesting to see who is in what camp. Endorsements have more of an entertainment value, but they do not have substantive quality.

iPol: Did you watch last week’s Clinton/Obama debate? If so, what were your impressions?
Laurenn S.: The debate concentrated on trivial issues. I thought it was a waste of time; I wanted to learn more about policy and how that policy would affect me and my future. When the flag pin question was directed to Senator Obama, I said here we go…is this really important. Patriotism has to do with how our leaders treat the citizens of this country, how they support our military on and off the field of battle. I know Senator Obama has to get ready for the attack machine coming his way in the fall, but I do not believe the debate is the right forum for this kind of gutter play.

iPol: What is your opinion about the tone of the campaign in Pennsylvania? Do you think it’s been very positive, too negative, or just about right? Do you think that the tone of the campaign is likely to hurt the chances of the eventual Democratic nominee (whether Clinton or Obama) in the fall campaign against John McCain?
Laurenn S.: I know pollsters and media hounds have to create controversy in order to attract good ratings, but I think this is much to do about nothing. The campaign in Pennsylvania has not been too negative. There have been some things said that make you wince and say “is that really necessary”, but on the whole it has been pretty tame. Obama started out his campaign not wanting to play in the arena of divisiveness, but just because he did not want to, doesn’t mean others were going to follow his lead. Politicians don’t know any better, Obama is trying to say it can be done a different way…unfortunately he has a long way to go in proving this style of campaigning works.

iPol: Open ended question: if there is one thing you would have liked to have seen done differently during the Pennsylvania primary it would be:_____________.
Laurenn S.: To actually have the candidates sit down and discuss one particular topic in depth for 1 ½ hours. It could have been the Iraq war, economic solutions, the global environment, etc. Hopefully this will be done during the general election, so we can get a better sense of what the nominees actually think and feel, instead of the same sound bites over and over.

iPol: Laurenn, thanks so much for taking time to chat with me today.
Laurenn S.: Thank you!

Thank God It's Tuesday

2008-04-22T08:20:00.001-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 272

Today is the date of the oh-so-long-awaited Pennsylvania primary, and the results could be decisive in determining the outcome of the Democratic nomination process.

A few background notes:

Pennsylvania is the largest of the 10 remaining Democratic nominating contests this year, with 158 pledged delegates up for grabs; the Keystone State will also send 29 super delegates to August's Democratic National Convention in Denver.

The most recent polling average calculated by Real Clear Politics gives Hillary Clinton a 6.1% advantage over Obama among Pennsylvania Democrats. If this holds, will a 6% margin of victory for Clinton be enough to sustain her campaign amid the ongoing calls for her to exit the race? An old adage in politics is that a win is a win is a win, but that may not hold true for Clinton unless her margin of victory significantly exceeds expectations.

A recent district-by-district analysis by Congressional Quarterly predicts that Clinton will bring home 53 delegates to Obama's 50, a net gain of only 3 delegates. Definitely something to watch when the returns start coming in.
[UPDATE: the Washington Post has published this helpful info: "The state has a two-part primary ballot, with voters choosing a presidential candidate and also picking from a slate of local delegates. Essentially, each of the state's 19 congressional districts runs a separate contest for delegates, weighted according to turnout in recent elections. A total of 103 delegates will be awarded according to each district's popular vote, while the remaining 84 will be distributed according to the statewide popular vote, or as unpledged superdelegates."]

From the standpoint of immediate practicality, perhaps more important for the shape of the race than popular vote totals and delegate hauls will be how Pennsylvania's results influence campaign fundraising, particularly for Hillary Clinton. FEC reports released a few days ago show Clinton's campaign $10.3 million in debt with just $9.3 million cash on hand at the beginning of April. Barack Obama, by contrast, began April with $42 million in cash on hand and only $663,000 in debt. If the results in Pennsylvania don't provide the needed encouragement for donors to open their wallets - big time and in a hurry - for Hillary Clinton, that may be the ball game in and of itself, irrespective of other factors.

Pennsylvania as been famously described as Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other and Alabama in between. Having lived in Philadelphia for more than five years and volunteering there for John Kerry in 2004, I can vouch for there being some truth in this. Pennsylvania is a sprawling, complex state, and is likely to deliver results to match.

North Carolina Debate Cancelled Amid Party Unity Concerns

2008-04-22T06:17:00.003-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 272

From the North Carolina Democratic Party:

"We regret to inform you that the proposed Democratic Presidential Debate scheduled for April 27 has been cancelled due to time constraints and logistical issues associated with such a large, national event.

You have shown tremendous passion and interest in being a part of history as Democrats are poised this year to elect the first female or African-American President. However, there were also growing concerns about what another debate would do to party unity.

We hope your interest in the North Carolina Democratic Party will not end with the cancellation of the debate.

We will keep your e-mail addresses for a random drawing to attend a special event in the fall featuring the nominee.

Senators Clinton and Obama have offered additional opportunities to be seen and heard across the state in the coming weeks and months.

Both candidates have committed to attending our Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on Friday, May 2 in Raleigh.

Tickets are available by signing up online at www.ncdp.org.

Again, the Party thanks you for your interest in the Democratic Presidential primary. We hope you will continue to be involved in local and state politics.

Your voice, your vote does make a difference."

Former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich Endorses Obama

2008-04-18T12:10:00.012-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 276

While he's not Bruce Springsteen, Robert Reich's endorsement of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton is still a semi-big deal. Why? Because previous high-profile Obama endorsers like Chris Dodd or Bill Richardson have explained their choice in terms of what they see as Obama's leadership qualities and a host of other intangibles; Reich touches on these, as well, but the heart of his endorsement center on what he views as Obama's superior policy chops. Here's a key excerpt:

"Although Hillary Clinton has offered solid and sensible policy proposals, Obama's strike me as even more so. His plans for reforming Social Security and health care have a better chance of succeeding. His approaches to the housing crisis and the failures of our financial markets are sounder than hers. His ideas for improving our public schools and confronting the problems of poverty and inequality are more coherent and compelling. He has put forward the more enlightened foreign policy and the more thoughtful plan for controlling global warming."

One of the more consistent threads running through the commentary on this cycle's Democratic nominating process has been that whether you love her or hate her, Hillary Clinton's undeniable, unassailable strong suit is her depth and breadth of knowledge on policy matters. Reich directly challenges that perception.

Of course, most voters would struggle to identify who Robert Reich is, so this endorsement is unlikely to resonate in the voting booths of Pennsylvania and the other remaining primary states. To a greater or lessor degree, that's true of endorsements generally. But coming it as it does from not only a long-time Clinton associate, but the Clinton administration official who was arguably the biggest policy geek in the Cabinet, Reich's endorsement is nonetheless likely to carry some weight, notably among uncommitted superdelegates.

Trivial Debate in Philadelphia

2008-04-17T07:30:00.004-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 277

Debates between presidential candidates can be many things: a snoozefest of statistics and wonkisms, a firefight between candidates of diametrically opposed views, and even, on rare occasion, freakishly relevant and lucid discussions about things that really matter to people.

And then, there was last night's farce on ABC, which was an on-air tutorial by moderators Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos of how to sidetrack an opportunity for meaningful political discourse just days before a crucial primary into a spectacle of triviality and distraction.

The Los Angeles Times sums it up well:

"...issues received relatively short shrift. Not until 50 minutes in was a policy issue -- Iraq -- asked about by the moderators. More than an hour went by before a question was asked about what Stephanopoulos called 'the No. 1 issue on Americans' minds' -- the economy."

While discussions are afoot about the possibility of a debate in North Carolina, last night's debate in Philadelphia may turn out to be the last chance voters will have to evaluate Clinton and Obama side-by-side. It is a shame that opportunity was squandered by the event's moderators, who were so fixated on warmed over non-stories about both candidates that any possibility of worthwhile discussion was strangled before the first commercial break (of many).

To paraphrase a vintage bumper sticker: I miss Tim Russert. Heck, I even miss Wolf Blitzer.

Quote of the Day

2008-04-15T10:14:00.009-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 279

From Arianna Huffington:

By cynically twisting Obama's comments about small town voters in a way that confirms every right-wing demagogic caricature of her own Party, Hillary Clinton has adopted the frames, lies, stereotypes and destructive clichés long embraced by the likes of Lee Atwater and Karl Rove. She has clearly decided that the road to victory runs through scorched earth. The question is, if she succeeds, what kind of Party will she be left to lead? She's burning down the village to save it -- or to prove that she would make the best fire chief. But the village won't be saved; only one house will be left standing. A house with room for just two occupants: Hill and Bill.

I am not, and never have been, 100% sold on Barack Obama. There are things I like about the junior senator from Illinois, and some things that make me scratch my head. And up until the past few weeks, I had felt pretty much the same way about Hillary Clinton. Publishers have sent me Hillary-bashing books in hopes I would write a laudatory review, and I've passed, for the simple reason that I refuse to be party to the ongoing poisoning of what now passes for political discourse in the United States. I felt assurance that whichever candidate, Clinton or Obama, emerged as the Democratic nominee in Denver, they would be obvious improvements over President Bush. They would make things better. Things would be different.

Which makes this latest twist from Senator Clinton all the more infuriating. If anyone had told me a year ago that Hillary Clinton would provide the basis for a headline like today's "McCain Echoes Clinton's Attacks" in the Washington Post, I wouldn't have believed it. I'm having a hard time believing it even as I type this. I realize Clinton is perhaps insurmountably behind Obama in both pledged delegates and popular votes won this year, but these latest attacks go beyond desperate, sending her deep into blind flailing. The fact that Senator Clinton has herself so often been the object of similar attacks from Republicans makes it all the more incomprehensible, to me, at least, that she should now not only employ those same tactics against a fellow Democrat, but make common cause with the Republican she hopes to face in the general election in November.

There is not, and never has been, any doubt about Hillary Clinton's instinct for the jugular. Her toughness as a candidate is widely recognized, a source of admiration for her supporters and opponents alike, and indispensable for a woman making a serious run for the White House. But if Hillary Clinton truly aspires to lead America, as opposed to merely being elected president, she must, if she still can, show herself to be more than a skilled player of political bloodsport. And she must do so now, or risk ceding all political ground save the gutter to clearer heads and other voices.

DFA Nightschool Returns April 23

2008-04-11T12:43:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 283

Campaign junkies, rejoice! This note from Democracy for America hit my inbox today:

Night School returns!

DFA Night School is an on-line training and live conference call that you can do from your own home. You'll get trained by the best in the field on the topic of the night. And best of all, it's free.

Join us as we kick off the 2008 semester with Writing a Field Plan on Wednesday April 23 starting at 8:30pm Eastern.

Our special guest trainer will be Helen Strain, from the Florida Alliance of Planned Parenthood. Helen will provide expert advice and answer your questions as we outline how to write a campaign blueprint for victory: The Field Plan.

RSVP now: www.dfalink.com/fieldplan

Would you like to know exactly how many votes it's going to take to win in November? Where and when to deploy your limited volunteer and financial resources so that they have the greatest impact? Night School gets you ready to run winning grassroots campaigns.

This year we're adding some new features while keeping the simplicity that makes Night School accessible to everyone. Now you will be able to choose if you want to call into a free conference call or listen to Night School streaming live from your computer through Blog Talk Radio.

Simply RSVP and you'll be sent the website and phone number to listen to the show. But more importantly, you'll be ready to join DFA members nationwide as Night School returns on April 23.

Get the skills to win.

RSVP now: www.dfalink.com/fieldplan

Thank you for everything you do,

-Matt

Matt Blizek
Training Director

P.S. Want to catch up on previous Night School topics? Check out one of our earlier semesters on DVD:

https://contribute.democracyforamerica.com/nightschool

Every DVD you purchase helps keep Night School free for everyone!

Six Months at a Time

2008-04-09T19:42:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 285

Courtesy of MoveOn:

'Nuff said.

Clinton Taps Evan Bayh for First Indiana Ad

2008-04-08T10:55:00.007-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 286

Hillary Clinton has launched her first TV ad in Indiana. Titled "Steel," the 30-second spot features Hoosier favorite son and U.S. Senator Evan Bayh speaking directly to the camera about Clinton's leadership qualities.

Indiana, which holds its primary on May 6, has been seeing Obama on the airwaves since the debut of the Illinois senator's "For Decades" ad on March 28. Both ads stress economic and trade fairness themes, with Obama's ad carrying the extra message urging Indiana voters to register before the state's April 7 deadline.

Here's the script for Clinton's new ad:

BAYH: "America faces challenging times. We need a leader who'll fight for good jobs, change trade deals like NAFTA, cut taxes for middle-class families. Someone who's ready to be commander in chief from day one. That leader? Hillary Clinton.

"I've known Hillary for twenty years. She's got a spine of steel. She'll fight for our jobs, our troops, and the America we love. Strong. Seasoned. She'll always stand up for us."

CLINTON: "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message."

And here's the video:

Anyone looking for a quick shift in message following Mark Penn's departure as Clinton's chief campaign strategist won't see it in this ad. The spot continues the "strength and experience" theme, long a favorite of Penn's, even as other senior campaign officials have urged greater emphasis on Hillary Clinton's human side.

Gallup: Obama Leads Clinton by 9% Nationally

2008-04-07T16:28:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 287

According to the Gallup organization, Barack Obama has opened a "statistically significant" lead of nine percentage points over Hillary Clinton in the latest nation-wide survey of voter preference in the Democratic presidential race.

Obama drew support from 52% of respondents, compared to 43% for Clinton. Obama's 52% ties his high-water mark for the year against Clinton.

Also of interest, the poll indicated that both Clinton and Obama poll at 45% against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain; McCain polls at 45% against Obama, putting the two in a dead tie, while the Arizona Senator leads Clinton by a slight 47% - 45% margin.

The poll of 1,240 voters was taken April 4-6, and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Full results from Gallup can be found here.

After Mark Penn

2008-04-07T07:44:00.025-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 287

Mark Penn, the pollster who has directed strategy for Hillary Clinton since she entered the presidential race last year, has left his post at the top of Clinton's campaign.

Penn "stepped down" - and seldom has a euphemism been more apropos - under pressure yesterday after work he had been doing in support of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Columbia became the object of media attention. It is worth noting that the Columbia deal is not the first time Penn has attracted attention for playing perhaps too many angles at once: the PR and lobbying firm of which Penn is chief executive, even while he has directed strategy for the Clinton campaign, has also represented Countrywide Financial, of sub-prime mortgage fame, as well as Blackwater Worldwide, the security contractor whose actions in Iraq have sparked considerable controversy. Hillary Clinton, of course, has spoken repeatedly on the campaign trail of her opposition to further trade deals and has been vocal in her criticism of financial firms like Countrywide. Taken together, it's been a whole lot of chainsaws for Mark Penn to juggle at the same time.

Penn is said to be widely disliked throughout the Clinton campaign, but had remained afloat heretofore due to his close relationship with both Hillary and Bill Clinton. But Penn's run as chief strategist finally ended when both Clintons reportedly reacted with fury to the news that, in addition to his firm representing Columbia on the trade deal, Penn personally met with Columbian officials about the pact March 31.

I can't help that recall that Austan Goolsbee, Barack Obama's senior economic policy adviser, was excoriated by the Clinton campaign last month - with Mark Penn leading the charge - for supposedly double-talking the Obama campaign's position on trade deals vis-a-vis Canada. The controversy generated over that incident was seen by many as tripping up Barack Obama in Ohio, and, to a lesser extent, Texas.

With just two weeks to go before a must-win primary in Pennsylvania, news that Hillary Clinton's top campaign official was working to secure a trade deal when all such pacts are viewed with suspicion, if not outright hostility, by the white working class voters Clinton has been frantically courting for the past six weeks, the timing of this development could hardly have been worse for the Clinton campaign. Added to last week's news that Barack Obama had out-fundraised Hillary Clinton by two-to-one in March, the Penn story further undermines the "we've got momentum!" story line the Clinton campaign has been working hard to sell since March 4th's primaries in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont.

But for all that, there's a silver lining in for the Clinton campaign in the Mark Penn story. Whatever his flaws of temperament and judgment, Mark Penn is a world-class pollster and political mind, and he will remain with the Clinton campaign as a pollster and adviser. Don't forget that Mark Penn authored the "Children" ad, famous for the 3:00 A.M. phone call gimmick, that many credit with greatly helping Clinton in Texas. The Clinton campaign retains access to Penn's skills, but, with Penn no longer calling the shots, may find itself freed from the considerable baggage Penn carried with him both inside the campaign and with the media. And that may be not only the the best of both worlds, but, in hindsight, the role that Penn may have been best suited for from the beginning.

It is a bitter pill for Mark Penn to swallow at the moment, but in the long run it may be just what the doctor ordered for Hillary Clinton's campaign.

No Pizza for Old Men

2008-04-04T07:48:00.008-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 290

Someone recently brought to my attention the story of James Spiers III. Spiers is a pizza delivery man here in Des Moines who, while making a delivery run last week, fought off a would-be robber by pulling his own handgun, only to lose his job for violating the pizza company's policy against drivers carrying firearms.

I've scribbled some thoughts on this over at Pajamas Media. Did the pizza company go too far? Head over to PJM and add your flame to the fire. The comment section is open!

[Update: 12:30 PM April 4]

95 comments so far over at PJM. Here is what I have learned so far:
guns = safety
killing = courage

More to come, no doubt!

[Update: 9:00 PM April 4]

131 comments on Pajamas Media now, far too many to even begin attempting to answer.

I am closing the comment section for this post, but I invite you to continue the discussion over at PJM.

My thanks to those who have read and commented on today's article. Whether you agree or disagree with what I have written, I commend to you these words of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., who died 40 years ago today, himself the victim of gun violence:

"I refuse to accept the view that mankind is so tragically bound to the starless midnight of racism and war that the bright daybreak of peace and brotherhood can never become a reality... I believe that unarmed truth and unconditional love will have the final word."

Clinton On the Air in Pennsylvania

2008-03-25T14:11:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 300

Following Barck Obama's Pennsylvania ad debut yesterday, Hillary Clinton has put up her first ad in the Keystone State. Interestingly, the 30-second spot, titled "Level," is an ad the Clinton campaign previously ran in Ohio. One could infer from this either that the Clinton campaign plans to re-run its successful Ohio campaign in Pennsylvania, or is too financially strapped to produce a new ad in Pennsylvania. Or quite probably both.

Here's the script for the ad:

"Announcer: She’s fighting for America’s middle class.

Clinton: It’s time to level the playing field against the special interests.

Announcer: She’ll end $55 billion dollars in giveaways to corporate special interests and invest it in middle class tax cuts and creating new jobs. She’ll get tough on unfair trade deals and end tax breaks to companies that ship jobs overseas.

Clinton: Standing up for people who weren’t getting a fair shake, that’s been the purpose of my life. And it will be the purpose of my presidency. I'm Hillary Clinton, and I approve this message."

And here's the video:

Dueling Campaign Swag

2008-03-25T12:14:00.009-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 300

We're still weeks away from the next primary, but the Clinton and Obama campaigns aren't taking any time off, to judge by what's been hitting my inbox this week.

As you might well guess, fund raising has been high on the docket for both candidates since the last round of contests on March 4, with both camps ratcheting up the frequency and urgency of their appeals for contributions to fund the (endlessly) on-going nomination race. Today, however, ushers in a new level of inducement from both Clinton and Obama.

First came an email from the Obama campaign offering four contributors a dinner with the candidate in exchange for a contribution. Call it "Party of Five" meets Powerball:

"Some of Barack's favorite moments of the campaign have been opportunities to meet and talk with the most important donors to this campaign: ordinary Americans just like you.

You've heard about all of these political fundraising dinners, hosted by Washington lobbyists and filled with representatives of special interests.

Contributions like these are at the root of what's wrong with politics. And John McCain and Hillary Clinton have built campaigns fueled by them.

But our campaign is different.

In February alone, more than 94% of our donors gave in amounts of $200 or less. Meanwhile, campaign finance reports show that donations of $200 or less make up just 13% of Senator McCain's total campaign funds, and only 26% of Senator Clinton's.

Our funding comes from a movement of more than one million people giving whatever they can afford.

And in the next week, four supporters will be selected for a new kind of fundraising dinner.

Make a donation in any amount between now and 11:59 pm EDT on Monday, March 31st, and you could join Barack and three other supporters for an intimate dinner for five.

We're reserving two of those seats for previous donors like you. Make your donation now:

https://donate.barackobama.com/dinner

This movement is changing the way campaigns are funded.

More than one million individual donors have demonstrated that this election is about more than a candidate -- it's about each of us having a personal stake in the future of American politics.

Meanwhile, Senator McCain has raised more than 70% of his total campaign funds from high-dollar donors giving $1,000 or more. Senator Clinton has raised 60% of her funds from $1,000-and-up donors. And both Senator McCain and Senator Clinton have accepted millions of dollars from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs.

Refusing to accept donations from lobbyists and special interests has allowed this campaign to answer only to ordinary Americans like you. And this dinner will be an opportunity for you to sit down with Barack and your fellow supporters and talk about the issues that matter in your life and in your community.

Get the kind of treatment that John McCain and Hillary Clinton reserve for special interests -- make a donation in the next week, and you could share your story and your ideas with Barack in person:

https://donate.barackobama.com/dinner

With every single donation, we're building a movement to change American politics. Help the movement grow, and own a piece of this campaign today.

Thanks for your support,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America"

For those with no appetite for the Obama campaign's offer of a seat at the table with their candidate during a group dinner date, the Clinton campaign sent out an email a little while later soliciting cash in exchange for a round-trip to New York and a one-night stand with their candidate:

"Contribute today and you could see Hillary and Elton. In the interest of harmony -- and melody -- I promise you there won't be any duets.

I'm really looking forward to the solo concert my friend Elton John is throwing in New York to help our campaign -- and I would very much like the chance to meet you there.

We're sending two supporters, along with their guests, to New York with VIP tickets for this very special, one-night-only concert on April 9, and it could be you. We will have a chance to talk just you and I -- and you will get to meet Elton John at the party we're throwing afterwards. It's going to be a great night.

Your support is so important to my campaign right now. As we ramp up our campaign in Pennsylvania, I need your help to make sure we have the resources we need to win. If you enter, you and I might see each other in New York on April 9. Make a contribution today.

Enter now for a chance to join me at Elton's solo concert in New York on April 9.

Elton's concert comes at such an exciting moment in our campaign. I'm seeing incredible enthusiasm as I travel across Pennsylvania and other states with upcoming contests.

We've got momentum at our backs, but a big task ahead of us. The Obama campaign is in the middle of a $3 million ad blitz in Pennsylvania, and we've got to do everything we can to overcome their fundraising advantage. Then we face competitive contests in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and Puerto Rico -- and we are already getting started in those states.

There's no better time to support our campaign, and no better way to do it than to make a contribution. And if you enter today, you may join me and Elton for a one-of-a-kind concert.

Enter now for a chance to join me at Elton's solo concert in New York on April 9.

Thank you so much for all your support. I hope you know how much you mean to me and my campaign.

Sincerely,

Hillary"

B-B-B-Benny and the (New York) Jets, perhaps? You know I read it a mag-a-zay-een...

Both offers are pretty amusing, and there's plenty of contrast between the two grand prizes to remark upon. But we will refrain from over-analyzing; this page is, after all, a political blog, not Vanity Fair.

But, if you're Vanity Fair, that doesn't mean we're not interested...

Obama on the Air in Pennsylvania with 3 Ads

2008-03-21T21:00:00.001-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 304

Barack Obama has put up his first TV ads in the run-up to the April 22 Pennsylvania primary.

The first ad is titled "Opportunity."

The second ad is titled "Toughest."

The third ad is titled "Carry."

Richardson Endorses Obama

2008-03-21T05:21:00.004-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 305

This is big. New Mexico Governor and former Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Richardson sent an email announcement early this morning endorsing Barack Obama's presidential bid.

To those who noted Richardson's defense of Hillary Cllnton in last year's debates and speculated that he may have been angling to become her running mate, as well as Richardson's history as a member of former president Bill Clinton's cabinet,Ricardson's endorsement of Obama will come as something of a surprise. However, given the Governor's statement earlier this month that whomever was ahead in the overall delegate count after the March 4 primaries in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont should be the party's nominee, today's endorsement was somewhat to be expected.

Coming at this juncture in the campaign, Richardson's endorsement can help Obama in two important ways. First, super delegates will undoubtedly take notice, and many may take their cue from Richardson and declare their support for Obama, further clarifying the likely outcome of the Democratic race. Second, and perhaps more importantly, Richardon's endorsement may help Obama among Hispanic voters, long counted upon by Hillary Clinton as an electoral firewall against Obama's candidacy.

Here's the email from Richardson.

"During the last year, I have shared with you my vision and hopes for this nation as we look to repair the damage of the last seven years. And you have shared your support, your ideas and your encouragement to my campaign. We have been through a lot together and that is why I wanted to tell you that, after careful and thoughtful deliberation, I have made a decision to endorse Barack Obama for President.

We are blessed to have two great American leaders and great Democrats running for President. My affection and admiration for Hillary Clinton and President Bill Clinton will never waver. It is time, however, for Democrats to stop fighting amongst ourselves and to prepare for the tough fight we will face against John McCain in the fall. The 1990's were a decade of peace and prosperity because of the competent and enlightened leadership of the Clinton administration, but it is now time for a new generation of leadership to lead America forward. Barack Obama will be a historic and a great President, who can bring us the change we so desperately need by bringing us together as a nation here at home and with our allies abroad.

Earlier this week, Senator Barack Obama gave an historic speech. that addressed the issue of race with the eloquence, sincerity, and optimism we have come to expect of him. He inspired us by reminding us of the awesome potential residing in our own responsibility. He asked us to rise above our racially divided past, and to seize the opportunity to carry forward the work of many patriots of all races, who struggled and died to bring us together.

As a Hispanic, I was particularly touched by his words. I have been troubled by the demonization of immigrants--specifically Hispanics-- by too many in this country. Hate crimes against Hispanics are rising as a direct result and now, in tough economic times, people look for scapegoats and I fear that people will continue to exploit our racial differences--and place blame on others not like them . We all know the real culprit -- the disastrous economic policies of the Bush Administration!

Senator Obama has started a discussion in this country long overdue and rejects the politics of pitting race against race. He understands clearly that only by bringing people together, only by bridging our differences can we all succeed together as Americans.

His words are those of a courageous, thoughtful and inspiring leader, who understands that a house divided against itself cannot stand. And, after nearly eight years of George W. Bush, we desperately need such a leader.

To reverse the disastrous policies of the last seven years, rebuild our economy, address the housing and mortgage crisis, bring our troops home from Iraq and restore America's international standing, we need a President who can bring us together as a nation so we can confront our urgent challenges at home and abroad.

During the past year, I got to know Senator Obama as we campaigned against each other for the Presidency, and I felt a kinship with him because we both grew up between words, in a sense, living both abroad and here in America. In part because of these experiences, Barack and I share a deep sense of our nation's special responsibilities in the world.

So, once again, thank you for all you have done for me and my campaign. I wanted to make sure you understood my reasons for my endorsement of Senator Obama. I know that you, no matter what your choice, will do so with the best interests of this nation, in your heart.

Sincerely,

Bill Richardson"

McCain and the 3:00 A.M. Phone Call

2008-03-20T13:19:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 305

John McCain, traveling in the Middle East to showcase the depth of his foreign policy knowledge and experience, made headlines yesterday. And not in a good way.

Since McCain is a United States Senator, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, he is billing the trip, literally and figuratively, as official business, which means taxpayers are footing the bill. The fact that John McCain is the putative Republican nominee for president is, of course, incidental to the trip. As is, apparently, the campaign fundraiser scheduled to take place in London later this week.

But, odd as it seems, that wasn’t the headline. No, the headline sprang from remarks McCain made in Amman, Jordan. Talking up the dangers of Iranian meddling in Iraq, McCain said, “Al-Qaida is going back into Iran and is receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran.” When a reporter asked McCain to flesh out that statement, the senator obliged by saying it is “common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that's well known. And it's unfortunate.”

Not so much unfortunate as patently and wildly inaccurate. Without getting too deep into the historical and theological weeds, suffice it to say that the Shiites running Iran are not exactly cozy with the Sunni affiliation of al-Qaida’s leadership. This is something that a lot of people understand, or at least recognize, including McCain’s senate colleague and Iraq war soul-mate Joe Lieberman, who is traveling with McCain’s delegation this week and was on the podium as McCain spoke. Realizing McCain’s error, Lieberman intervened by delicately whispering in McCain’s ear that the bad guys in question were not, in fact, affiliated with al-Qaida, but were more accurately referred to as “Shiite extremists.” McCain pivoted immediately, “I'm sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al-Qaeda,” adding again, “I’m sorry.”

I’ll give McCain the benefit of the doubt and assume that his second “I’m sorry” was not an expression of regret that Iran really isn’t training al-Qaida, after all, or perhaps that al-Qaida is not an extremist organization, as opposed to those whom Iran is training, but rather was an additional apology for his gaffe.

No one disputes that Iran supports and trains violent extremist groups (Hezbollah, anyone?), and does so with specific reference to Iraq. The problem with McCain's statement in Amman is that he lumps all Islamic groups under the al-Qaeda moniker, either out of personal ignorance or a desire to frighten voters with the name of the one terrorist organization they are likely to know of. That fact that McCain retracted and apologized after being corrected by Lieberman does rather force one to assume ignorance (and distinctly not confusion) is the culprit.

The point is that John McCain, who has derided both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as dangerously unqualified starry-eyed know-nothing dreamers when it comes to foreign policy, and promoting himself as the only candidate equipped to be America’s Commander in Chief, lacks even a basic grasp of facts that are central and fundamental to life in the Middle East, an area of vital American interest where our armed forces are bogged down in a war we have thus far been able neither to win nor otherwise end. John McCain is running for president in large part because he claims superior understanding of foreign policy and security issues. The Amman gaffe is the latest, but by no means the only, indicator that McCain's grasp of detail, which I think most people can agree is important for a president, is no better in these matters than that of the current incumbent. The clear implication is that with no better grasp of factual detail than George W. Bush, Americans can expect no better results for the country than they've seen these past 7-plus years.

This embarrassing episode for McCain not only undermines his central claim to superior presidential fitness, but also makes it harder for voters to imagine McCain as the man answering the White House phone when it rings at 3:00 in the morning. But let me urge those who may be feeling that way not to be too hasty. Don’t despair. You can still imagine John McCain answering the 3:00 phone call.

In fact, it may go something like this:

It’s 3:00 A.M. and your children are safe and asleep. But there’s a phone in the White House and it’s ringing. Something’s happening in the world.

Phone: *riiiiing. Riiiiiiiing. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing! RRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING!!*
McCain: Hmph.Grmph?
Phone: *RRRRRRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING!!!*
McCain: Ugh. Hello?
Voice on Phone: Mr. President, this is your national Security Advisor.
McCain. Oh. Good Lord, do you know what time it is?
Voice on Phone: Indeed I do, sir. It’s 3:00 A.M.
McCain: What the hell are you doing calling me at this hour?
Voice on Phone: Well, sir, we have a situation in the Middle East.
McCain: Oh, no. Baltimore?
Voice on Phone: Er, no sir. The Persian Gulf. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia.
McCain: I know, I know. And all those little countries, too. Well, what’s happening?
Voice on Phone: If you would join us in the Situation Room, sir, the Joint Chiefs are assembled and waiting to brief you.
McCain: Now? It’s 3:00 A.M., for God’s sake.
Voice on Phone: Yes, sir.
McCain: OK. But make sure Vice-President Lieberman’s there. And call the folks on K Street and tell them I may be late for the weekly meeting.
Voice on Phone: Yes, sir.
McCain: OK. The Situation Room: that’s upstairs, right? Near the attic?
Voice on Phone: No sir, it’s closer to the basement.
McCain: I’m sorry, the basement, not the attic. I’m sorry.

You get the picture. For anyone seriously contemplating voting to elevate John McCain to the office of president, Wednesday’s gaffe in Amman, even if it didn’t happen at 3:00 A.M., should serve as your wake up call.

DFA Open Letter: "Fight McCain, Not Each Other"

2008-03-17T14:35:00.002-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 308

Sign me up. This note from Democracy for America hit my in box today:

The Democratic race for President has lost its focus. We have John McCain to beat in November, instead we fight each other.

Geraldine Ferraro. Reverend Wright. Rezko ties. Secret tax returns. If you're like me; you're sick of it.

We have a war to end, an economy in trouble, and $4 gas.

With hundreds of progressives to elect at all levels of office, it's time to leave the character attacks to Ann Coulter and Bill O'Reilly.

America needs to know why our candidates are better than John McCain and we need to hear it from Senators Clinton and Obama.

Fight McCain, not each other. Join me in signing an open letter to the candidates now:

www.DemocracyforAmerica.com/OpenLetter

We have an historic nomination battle, driving record Democratic turnout and commanding the nation's attention.

America needs to know our nominee will fight global warming with new jobs, technologies, and investment. Our nominee will expand health coverage to 10 million kids immediately, allow lifesaving research on stem cells, and work toward health care for all by the end of a first term. We will ban torture, restore habeas corpus, and build renewed respect for America around the world.

A Democratic President will end the war in Iraq and bring our brave men and women home.

A long primary battle is healthy as long as we make the case for how we'll win, not how the other candidate will lose. We need to fight McCain, not each other. Join me in demanding Senators Clinton and Obama keep their eyes on the ball.

www.DemocracyforAmerica.com/OpenLetter

Let voters choose our nominee based on the best we have to offer, not the worst we can imagine.

Senators Clinton and Obama say they are ready to lead. Now is their chance to prove it.

Thank you for everything you do to move America forward.

-Jim

Jim Dean
Chair

Clinton, Obama Likely to Debate Twice Before PA Primary

2008-03-14T10:18:00.005-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 311

According to the Associated Press, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are likely to face off in at least two debates between now and Pennsylvania's primary voting on April 22.

One debate, to be hosted by ABC news, would take place in Pennsylvania, with the date still to be finalized. The other, to be sponsored by CBS news, is scheduled to take place April 19 in North Carolina, which holds its own primary with 115 delegates at stake on May 6.

The Obama campaign has agreed to the North Carolina debate, but as yet there has been no firm commitment to appear from the Clinton campaign.

Keith Olbermann: Mindreader

2008-03-13T10:54:00.006-05:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 312

Last night on MSNBC's "Countdown," host Keith Olbermann gave voice to what I've been thinking and feeling all week, but have been too sickened to write.

Ten minutes of unvarnished truth. Hear, hear.

A Nine Followed by Seven Zeros

2008-03-06T14:31:00.004-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 319

The Obama campaign released information today indicating that it raised $55 million dollars during the month of February, all but $1 million of it earmarked to be spent in the primaries.

Combined with the $35 million the the Clinton campaigned raised, that makes February's Democratic fund raising haul a staggering $90 million dollars.

That's an average of more than $3 million per day, every day, for the entire month of February. Words fail me.

Thoughts on Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas & Vermont

2008-03-05T08:58:00.013-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 320

Hillary Clinton emerged victorious in some major contests last night, and that is big news if for no other reason than it is the first time anyone has been able to put the words "Clinton" and "victorious" in the same sentence in quite a while.

About the only conclusion that can be immediately drawn from last night's results is that the Democratic race has a ways to go before being settled (anyone in the room who didn't see that coming, go stand in the corner). The Clinton campaign can now draw its first breath since February 5 and turn its attention to what comes next. One gets the impression that when the Clinton campaign thinks "next," they mean Pennsylvania on April 22, but that ignores Wyoming's caucuses this coming Saturday and Mississippi's primary next Tuesday. Those two contests, while combining to offer just 45 delegates, are important in that they provide the winner with the chance to, in the Clinton version, build some momentum from last night's results and roll up some more "hey! wha' happun?" stories from the thunderstruck mainstream media, or, in the Obama version, diminish the atmospherics that now prevail after last night's voting and reinforce the daunting challenge Clinton faces in closing Obama's delegate lead, which remains little changed despite last night's outcome. The Clinton campaign has heretofore shown a tendency to look past small contests; we'll see whether that trend continues.

For the Republicans, or at least those Republicans who back John McCain, all is joy this morning: McCain numerically clinched the delegates required for nomination last night, and is scheduled to receive President Bush's endorsement in the White House Rose Garden this morning (for which gesture I, as a Democrat, am eternally grateful. John McCain standing side-by-side with George W. Bush, receiving the president's blessing to carry on with policies that have skyrocketed him to public approval ratings persistently below 30 percent? Now there's a Kodak moment!). Unfortunately for McCain, important segments of the GOP base still view him as little better than either of the remaining Democratic candidates, so the Straight Talk Express is facing a bumpy ride, not to mention an uphill one, going into November.

And for Barack Obama, the next few weeks present both challenge and opportunity. If Obama can recoup from last night with large-margin wins in Wyoming and Mississippi and roll out meaningful numbers of super delegate commitments, he can present the case that the delegate lead he enjoys leaves Clinton with no realistic path to the nomination, and renew his drive with the Democratic establishment to press for Clinton's withdrawal in the interests of party unity. In the event that Clinton remains in the race through Pennsylvania and beyond, the campaign is sure to continue its negative trend, and the challenge for Obama then becomes showing that he can take a punch and hit back effectively. Doing that without disillusioning those who look to him as the progenitor of a better political culture will be no easy feat, but if he can pull it off, it would enhance his image by adding an element of toughness to his change agent persona. That would serve him well going into a general election campaign against John McCain.

Virtual Spin Room: Texas & Ohio

2008-03-05T05:04:00.005-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 320

After the big votes in Texas & Ohio, here's what the candidates want you to think:

Hillary Clinton

It's a pretty incredible feeling, isn't it? After our victories tonight we have the momentum, thanks to your will, determination, and hard work.

Some people were ready to count us out. But you and I proved them wrong, just as we have every time they tried to declare this race over prematurely. And we're going to keep showing them exactly what we can do.

We're going to do it for everyone across America who's been counted out -- but refused to be knocked out. For everyone who's stumbled -- but stood right back up. And for everyone who works hard -- but never gives up.

I hope you enjoy our victories tonight as much as I am. We won this one together, and that makes it that much better. Thank you so very much for all you have done for our campaign.

Let's build on this remarkable momentum. Each and every one of you can make a statement tonight by going to www.hillaryclinton.com

Thank you so much for everything you did to make this night possible.

All the best,
Hillary

Barack Obama

We may not know the final outcome of today's voting until morning, but the results so far make one thing clear.

When the dust settles from today's contests, we will maintain our substantial lead in delegates. And thanks to millions of people standing for change, we will keep adding delegates and capture the Democratic nomination.

We knew from the day we began this journey that the road would be long. And we knew what we were up against.

We knew that the closer we got to the change we seek, the more we'd see of the politics we're trying to end -- the attacks and distortions that try to distract us from the issues that matter to people's lives, the stunts and the tactics that ask us to fear instead of hope.

But this time -- this year -- it will not work. The challenges are too great. The stakes are too high.

Americans need real change.

In the coming weeks, we will begin a great debate about the future of this country with a man who has served it bravely and loves it dearly. And we will offer two very different visions of the America we see in the twenty-first century.

John McCain has already dismissed our call for change as eloquent but empty.

But he should know that it's a call that did not begin with my words. It's the resounding call from every corner of this country, from first-time voters and lifelong cynics, from Democrats and Republicans alike.

And together you and I are going to grow this movement to deliver that change in November.

Thank you,

Barack

D-Day?

2008-03-04T07:27:00.004-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 321

Appearing on CBS' "Face the Nation" this past Sunday, New Mexico Governor and former 2008 Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Richardson said this when asked about the inportance of today's voting in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont:

"D-Day is Tuesday. Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday should be the nominee"

I don't know if I would agree that it's quite so cut-and-dried as that, and I certainly think that Richardson overstates matters when he characterizes Republicans as united behind John McCain. But, yes, today could be a significant point in the 2008 campaign, to the extent that it either reinforces or reverses current perceptions on the direction of the Democratic presidential race.

The Washington Post serves up a nice tray of questions that today's voting might help clarify. Here's an excerpt:

"The latest Associated Press delegate counts available on washingtonpost.com show Obama with 1,352 and Clinton with 1,239, a margin of 113. CNN says Obama is leading by 143. The Obama and Clinton campaigns are in relative agreement. Obama's team claims a 162-delegate lead, while Clinton's says he is ahead by 160.5.

There are 370 pledged delegates at stake today. After Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont have been counted, only 611 pledged delegates will be left in the remaining contests. No matter how you run the numbers, the conclusion is always the same: There is virtually no realistic way for Clinton to emerge from the primary-caucus season with more pledged delegates than Obama.

The Clinton counter to this is that pledged delegates alone will not get Obama to the majority that either candidate needs to win the nomination, leaving the outcome in the hands of the superdelegates -- those elected officials and party leaders who have turned off their phones rather than having to say no to one of the candidates."

I think today's voting comes down to a question of when and how either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama achieves critical mass in their quest for the nomination. Obama, of course, has eleven consecutive victories under his belt going into today, and it has been that performance over time that has reshaped the Democratic race. The result of a single day's voting is unlikely to clinch things, in the sense that either campaign will be able to say it's all over tonight.

I've jotted down some thoughts on this over at Pajamas Media. I'll be back tomorrow with my take on the results and what they might mean.

New Obama Ad in Texas: "Ringing"

2008-03-01T12:40:00.005-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 324

Barack Obama has a new ad up in Texas. The 30-second spot, titled "Ringing," is a direct rebuttal to the Clinton campaign's "Children" ad released yesterday.

Here's the video:

On the substance of the ad, the same comments apply here that I made yesterday regarding Clinton's ad - no new tale to tell.

But in terms of campaign agility and response time, this ad is pretty impressive: same imagery, same narrative style, and pushing the Clinton ad's point directly back upon itself, and all done in less than a day. If the last 24 hours is any indication, Barack Obama is going to be pretty tough to swiftboat, from either side of the aisle.

New Clinton Ad in Texas: "Children"

2008-02-29T15:03:00.010-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 325

Hillary Clinton has a new ad up in Texas. The 30-second spot, titled "Children," uses a telephone ringing in the White House at 3:00 AM to dramatize the importance of the president as commander in chief and make the case that Hillary Clinton should be the person answering the call when crises arise.

Here's the script for the ad:

ANNOUNCER: "It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call. Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military -- someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world. It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?"

CLINTON: "I'm Hillary Clinton, and I approve this message."

And here's the video:

This is the type of ad that we're more used to seeing during a general election campaign than during primary season. I understand the point that the Clinton campaign is making with this ad, and it clearly aligns with her experience message, but I think this ad skirts very close to crossing the line and playing the fear card with voters. The subtext is "if Hillary loses, the terrorists win."

The problem I have with this is that, to my knowledge, Hillary Clinton has never been at the center of an emerging crisis and has never faced the test posited in this ad. Nor has Barack Obama. Nor, I hasten to ad, has John McCain. There are some aspects of the presidency that no one but presidents have been called upon to face. Voters can certainly infer competence from a whatever experiences a given candidate has undergone, and make judgments on that basis about whom they would prefer to trust in a crisis. But to say, as this ad does, that Hillary Clinton, or anyone who has not been President of the United States, somehow knows what it's like to get that phone call at three in the morning is a bit silly. Despite what this ad suggests, I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

But the little trumpet fanfare at the end, trilling as Hillary rides in to pick up the phone and save the day, is cute. Nice touch, Mandy Grunwald!

Chris Dodd Endorses Obama: "He is Ready to be President"

2008-02-26T08:48:00.004-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 328

As an anticipated, U.S. Senator and former Democratic presidential candidate Chris Dodd today endorsed Barack Obama's bid to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Dodd issued the following announcement this morning:

We have been through a lot in this past year and your friendship and support have meant so much to me. That is why I wanted to let you know of my decision to endorse a Democratic candidate for President - and that I have decided to support Barack Obama.

We all understand how much is at stake in this election and that it is more important than ever that we put a Democrat in the White House.

And while both of our Party's remaining candidates are extremely talented and would make excellent commanders-in-chief, I am throwing my support to the candidate who I believe will open the most eyes to our shared Democratic vision.

I'm deeply proud to be the first 2008 Democratic presidential candidate to endorse Barack Obama. He is ready to be President. And I am ready to support him - to work with him and for him and help elect him our 44th President.

Put simply, I believe Barack Obama is uniquely qualified to help us face this housing crisis, create good jobs, strengthen America's families in this 21st century global economy, unite the world against terrorism and end the war in Iraq - and perhaps most importantly, call the American people to shared service and sacrifice. In this campaign, he has drawn millions of voters into politics for the first time in their lives and shown us that we are united by so much more than that which divides us.

That is why I believe the time has come for Democrats to come together as a Party and focus on winning the general election. The stakes are too high not to.

The last seven years have been as difficult as any I can remember. More than ever, we need a President who will inspire us to take part in the political process and change our country's path.

Today, when we need it most, we are hearing a new call from Barack Obama. And I hope you, like me, will answer it in the affirmative.

Please get involved in Barack Obama's campaign now: http://action.barackobama.com/doddsupporters

Sincerely,

Chris Dodd

Except as momentary news blips, I've never believed endorsements like this actually carry much weight. A case in point is Obama losing the Massachusetts primary to Hillary Clinton, even after he had been endorsed by the Bay State's political lion, Ted Kennedy.

What this does provide Barack Obama is marginally enhanced status among the party base, who admire Chris Dodd for his longstanding crusade to restore constitutional protections of civil liberties eroded by the Bush administration. During his own presidential campaign, Dodd won the endorsement of the International Association of Fire Fighters, and he may be of influence in swinging that endorsement over to Obama. But the impact on the voters in Texas and Ohio, the big states going to the polls on March 4, will likely be small. What is true of all endorsements is that a candidate would rather have them than not, and Dodd's endorsement of Obama is no exception.

It's All Your Fault

2008-02-25T10:33:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 329

Last Wednesday at New York City's Hunter College, Senator Hillary Clinton addressed supporters at a fundraiser. Her remarks included this gem:

"It is time to get real – to get real about how we actually win this election and get real about the challenges facing America. It’s time that we moved from good words to good work, from sound bites to sound solutions."

Which to my ear sounds oddly like, well, a sound bite.

I've written up some thoughts about this, which can be found over at Pajamas Media. Suffice it to say here that the most enduring line-not-to-be-crossed remaining in American politics is placing blame on the voters when your campaign isn't going as well as you'd like. Don't go there, Hillary.

Thoughts on the Texas Debate

2008-02-22T09:23:00.016-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 332

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama met in their nineteenth debate last night in Austin, Texas. The face-off occurred against a backdrop of crucial voting looming in Ohio and Texas on March 4, a winning streak for Barack Obama that has swelled to eleven consecutive victories with yesterday's win in the primary voting among Democrats Abroad, and new polls showing continuing momentum for Obama in his quest to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Here are a few thoughts on last night's debate.

Clinton came into the event trailing Obama in both pledged and overall delegate projections. The New York Times has Obama ahead 1,117 to 1,112 for Clinton, the Associated Press gives Obama a 1,178 - 1,024 edge, and RealClear Politics shows Obama ahead 1,363 to 1,271. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Clinton's lead has evaporated to a sliver in Texas and is also down considerably in Ohio, two states that are universally regarded as ones Clinton must win, and win big-time, to remain a viable candidate for the Democratic nomination.

All of which combined to present Clinton with enormous challenges, but also significant opportunities going into last night's debate. The Clinton campaign team feels that their candidate routinely bests Obama in head-to-head appearances, and looked to highlight what they feel are Clinton's superior experience and readiness for the Oval Office against what they contend to be a rhetorically gifted but substantively deficient Barack Obama. All told, last night's debate presented Hillary Clinton with a chance to change the storyline of the campaign and catapult herself back to relevance in her race against Barack Obama.

Barack Obama's objective, on the other hand, was to reinforce the momentum provided by his electoral winning streak of the previous fortnight and to project an image of presidential demeanor and competence to voters in Texas and Ohio, as well as the broader electorate.

Both candidates performed well, overall, presenting their competing policy proposals at length and in detail. Barack Obama succeeded in appearing presidential, above negative discourse, and comfortable with his position as the campaign's frontrunner and likely Democratic standard-bearer against Republican John McCain in November. Indeed, at times, Barack Obama appeared to look past Hillary Clinton and turned his fire squarely against George W. Bush and the GOP, while seeming as unworried about Clinton as he had in previous debates when addressing also-rans Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel.

But Hillary Clinton had her moments, as well, including the evening's most replayed sound bite. Again raising charges first made during the campaign in Wisconsin earlier this week, Clinton alleged that Obama had plagiarized parts of his recent stump speeches, this time adding the mocking jab, "lifting whole passages from someone else's speeches is not change you can believe in, it's change you can Xerox."

That zinger, while it has earned plenty of airtime and discussion in the media overnight and into this morning, also earned a hearty round of immediate booing and jeering for Clinton from the audience in the debate hall itself. Barack Obama, in response, clearly saw Clinton's line as a spitball in the dirt, and calmly let it pass.

But without doubt, the award for the finest moment of the entire debate last night goes to...John Edwards. Seriously. In answering the last question of the debate, asking the candidates to recall difficult moments in their lives and how those experiences shaped them, an emotional Hillary Clinton said:

"Well, I think everybody here knows I've lived through some crises and some challenging moments in my life. And I am grateful for the support and the prayers of countless Americans.

But...with all of the challenges that I've had, they are nothing compared to what I see happening in the lives of Americans every single day.

Whatever happens, we're going to be fine. You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends. I just hope that we'll be able to say the same thing about the American people, and that's what this election should be about."

Which looks like Hillary Clinton hitting a grand slam out of the park, until you recall these lines of John Edwards' from the conclusion of the Des Moines Register debate back on December 13, 2007:

"...remember that in the midst of political hoopla the glorification of politicians and presidential candidates that somewhere in America tonight a child will go to bed hungry, somewhere in America tonight a family will have to go to the emergency room and beg for health care for a sick child, that somewhere in America today a father who's worked for 30 or 40 years to support his family will lose his job, and that that's what's at stake in this election. What's not at stake are any of us. All of us are going to be just fine no matter what happens in this election. But what's at stake is whether America is going to be fine."

Which similarity might best be summarized as heartfelt authenticity you can Xerox.

But in the final analysis, Hillary Clinton lost last night's debate not because she lifted lines from John Edwards, but because nothing she said altered the narrative of the Democratic campaign as it now stands. Clinton came out of the debate as she entered it: a candidate who appears more vulnerable with each passing day, blinking in uncomprehending disbelief at the magnitude of her political reversals and unable to come up with anything to halt her skid.

Next Tuesday's debate in Ohio is Hillary Clinton's last, best chance to turn her campaign around. If she cannot do better there than she did last night in Texas, Hillary Clinton has no realistic hope of surviving as a credible candidate.

After Hawaii & Wisconsin

2008-02-20T09:50:00.007-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 334

With last night's victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii, Barack Obama has now racked up 10 straight wins over Hillary Clinton since February 5.

The results of yesterday's voting continued and solidified the trend that first came into focus in last week's contests in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia: Barack Obama is winning over large groups of core Democratic voters, many of whom were thought to be safely in Clinton's corner only a fortnight ago. As I posted yesterday, Wisconsin could hardly have been better suited to serve as the launching pad for Hillary Clinton's recovery against Obama's recent string of successes, and yet she lost decisively among many groups she had previously been able to win over. Workers making less than $50,000 per year, those without college degrees, who also form a major block of the electorate in Ohio, went for Obama, as did crossover independent and Republican voters. Even women voters, previously a bulwark of support for Clinton, split nearly evenly between her and Obama.

This is just about as bad as things can be for Hillary Clinton. Her message isn't resonating; her public image isn't improving; her strategies have failed; her staff shakeup hasn't made any difference. And now, with her back to the wall, Hillary Clinton must - simply, absolutely must - score not just wins, but double-digit wins, in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas to get back in to this race. Between now and late April, Hillary Clinton cannot afford a single mistake, misstep, off-note, or stumble. And given the misfiring campaign Clinton has been running so far this year, that is a very, very serious challenge for her.

The immediate focus of the campaign now shifts to tomorrow's debate in Texas, which, if last night's speech by Hillary Clinton provides any indication, will be a thoroughly nasty exercise in trying to raise Obama's negatives. Obama will need to keep his head and stay on message, which, given his uneven performances in past debates, could be a problem for him. On the other hand, if Obama holds up well under Clinton's attacks, he'll have fresh ammunition against charges that he isn't ready to stand up against the Republican attack machine. It should prove an interesting evening, either way.

Preview: Wisconsin and Hawaii

2008-02-19T09:15:00.016-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 335

Democratic voters go to the polls today for nominating contests in Hawaii and Wisconsin. Unlike the previous voting on February 5 and February 12, there is, mercifully, no catchy collective nickname for today's contests, which is not say that someone at CNN ("the best political team on television!") isn't working hard to come up with one.

Hawaii is holding a caucus today, awarding 20 delegates. Wisconsin is holding an open primary, with 74 delegates at stakes. Delegates from both states will be awarded in proportion roughly corresponding to the candidate's popular vote totals.

Hawaii is the state where Barack Obama was born, and is a caucus state to boot, so he can expect today to be, literally and figuratively, something of a day at the beach. And for those at home who might be wondering, weather is not expected to be a factor in determining turnout.

Wisconsin has been shaping up as the more interesting contest of the two. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have spent a fair amount of money on TV advertising in the Badger State, and, despite poor weather over the weekend, have spent some time on the ground there as well. Polling numbers have been tracking in Obama's favor, with most surveys showing him with a lead of between four and five points over Hillary Clinton. Numerically, four or five points is not all that significant, and if the day's returns are in line with those numbers, the Clinton campaign will privately heave a sigh of relief and publicly proclaim the political death of Barack Obama.

For today's voting in Wisconsin is far more important for Hillary Clinton than for Barack Obama. Demographically, Wisconsin looks like a state that Clinton's chief strategist Mark Penn might have created in an electoral Sim game: overwhelmingly Caucasian (who's votes Clinton has won by an 11 percent average in this year's previous contests), heavily blue collar, with some 40% earning less than $50,000 per year and fewer than half possessing college degrees (and Clinton has won these subgroups by a whopping average of 23% so far), and skews slightly older than the nation as a whole. Given those facts, Hillary Clinton should be leading here by double digits. The fact that she is not shows how far her fortunes have fallen since the beginning of this year, and illustrates how badly she needs to do well in Wisconsin.

It isn't just the eight consecutive contests that Clinton has lost to Obama in recent days, but the enormous scale of many of those losses that have led to Clinton's declining prospects. But, ironically, it also provides a bit of cover for Clinton should she lose in Wisconsin: her campaign has been declaring that they expect to lose the state, and will spin anything other than a double-digit loss here as a big win for their side, and a crushing blow to Obama's momentum.

On the other hand, if Obama wins here on anything like the scale of last week's victories in D.C, Maryland and Virginia, it is simply over for Hillary Clinton. Forget Ohio, forget Texas, forget Pennsylvania. And forget Super Delegates. A bad defeat for Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin will likely render Obama's momentum irresistible, and make further argument moot.

For Barack Obama, a decisive victory in Wisconsin hinges on two elements: turnout and crossover voters. Wisconsin holds an open primary, and with the Republican nomination of John McCain no longer in question, Independent and GOP voters may well go where the action is: on the Democratic side. Obama has done better than Clinton among Independents in open primaries so far this year, and Republicans are, to put it mildly, unlikely to cast their votes in large numbers for Clinton. Neither higher voter turnout nor significant crossover votes may materialize for Barack Obama in Wisconsin today, of course, but given the trends in recent elections, he has some reason for optimism.

And that's as far as I'll go today until the votes are counted. Further thoughts after the results.

Connect The Dots

2008-02-16T13:08:00.003-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 338

Glancing at the headlines in today's New York Times, three things caught my eye:

F.B.I. Received Unauthorized E-Mail Access - As government surveillance has increased, violations of federal wiretap law have become a regular if little-noticed occurrence.

Bush Calls Lawmakers 'Irresponsible' - President Bush said Saturday that lawmakers' failure to renew an eavesdropping law will make it more difficult to track terrorists and ''we may lose a vital lead that could prevent an attack on America.''

U.S. Struggles to Tutor Iraqis in Rule of Law

I can't even begin to count the ways that this administration just doesn't get it.

Stat of the Day

2008-02-13T13:13:00.004-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 341

This nugget of hard news from the Associated Press today is just too good to pass up:

STAT OF THE DAY:

Sixty-three percent of Democrats say Hillary Rodham Clinton is good looking compared with 17 percent of Republicans, with Democratic women slightly likelier to say so than men. Barack Obama is viewed as good looking by 58 percent of Democrats, 41 percent of Republicans. John McCain is seen as good looking by about a quarter of those from both parties, according to an AP-Yahoo News survey released Feb. 1.

Which gives new meaning to the phrase, "political beauty contest."

Bloodbath on the Chesapeake

2008-02-13T07:38:00.016-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 341

[Updated to include delegate projections from the New York Times]

The story this morning, following yesterday's balloting in D.C., Maryland and Virginia is three more primaries, three more big wins for Barack Obama. Obama obliterated Hillary Clinton yesterday, and for that matter, John McCain as well. How so? Take a look at the popular vote totals in each contest:

District of Columbia
Clinton: 27,326
McCain: 3,929 (and no, that number is not a typo)
Obama: 85,534

That's Obama beating Clinton and McCain combined by 54,279 votes.

Maryland
Clinton: 273,828
McCain: 157,906
Obama: 439,979

Again, Obama bests the combined Clinton and McCain totals, this time by 8,245 votes.

Virginia
Clinton: 345,018
McCain: 242,578
Obama: 619,036

Once more, combined totals for Clinton and McCain come up 31,440 short of the number of votes cast for Barack Obama alone.

Overall, Barack Obama tallied 93, 964 more votes yesterday than his principal Democratic rival and the GOP's presumptive nominee combined.

This is an astonishing result, the like of which we have never seen before. The way this plays out in terms of delegates is, as ever, subject to some conjecture. The Associated Press now estimates that Obama leads Clinton by a total of 1,223 to 1,198, while RealClear Politics puts Obama on top with 1,260 delegates to Clinton's 1,221, with the New York Times projecting 1,095 delegates for Obama to Clinton's 982 (pledged delegates only). But it now appears that Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in total delegates (super delegates included) for the first time since since the Iowa Caucuses back on January 3.

The implications for the campaign during the remainder of February are clear. Hillary Clinton is down, but by no means out. Having gone zero for seven in the just the last four days, Hillary Clinton needs a game changer, and there are two obvious places to go: go negative on Barack Obama, and retool her message to focus on populist economic themes, ala John Edwards. While these are the obvious choices, there's no guarantee they will be effective, or by any means easy to do. But the question is, what other choices does Clinton have left? Focusing on winning big states alone hasn't worked, and counting on Texas and Ohio to save her on March 4 while she faces the prospect of continuing routs everywhere else until then would be delusional. Clinton has replaced her campaign manager, her deputy campaign manager and parts of her internet team, but absent changes in how Clinton herself chooses to react to her slide since getting trounced in South Carolina, this will amount little more than the proverbial rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic.

John McCain, while reaping huge delegate totals in every contest thanks to the GOP's winner-take-all rules, continues to struggle to win over the conservative and evangelical base of his party. The hope expressed by the Republican establishment and media last week that their base would stop worrying and learn to love McCain once it became clear that he was going to be the nominee is turning out to look increasingly forlorn. John McCain has a serious problem, and it goes far deeper than the continuing campaign of Mike Huckabee. The things that make McCain an appealing candidate to moderate and independent voters are the very things that inspire loathing for McCain in the GOP base, and reconciling those groups behind his candidacy will take more skill than McCain or anyone in the GOP has shown up to this point. And the Republican hope that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and do their unifying for them is looking increasingly shaky as well.

For Barack Obama, the main benefit of this string of victories is threefold. First, it will keep his buzz building, which will pay particular dividends in fundraising, as money follows the winner. Second,it blunts Clinton's claims to greater electability, as that argument only makes sense if you're winning, and Clinton isn't. And finally, it is beginning to cause the electorate at large to reevaluate the race, in effect creating space for voters to ask themselves, "OK, so why not Obama?" And that is the new territory that Barack Obama has entered this morning: in the public mind, he has for the first time become a genuinely viable choice for president.

None of which is to say that anything is set in stone with months still to go before the summer's party conventions. But for Hillary Clinton and John McCain, this is a red sky morning.

Sweeps Week for Obama?

2008-02-11T06:25:00.000-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 343

If polling data proves accurate, following this past weekend's blow-out victories over Hillary Clinton, today's voting in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia could give Barack Obama a sweep of seven consecutive contests in the space of four days.

Recent polls in today's contests certainly look promising for Obama. ARG has Obama up by 18 points in both Maryland and Virginia, while Survey USA has Obama up by 23 points in Maryland and 22 points in Virginia.

This follows, of course, last weekend's contests, where Obama beat Clinton by 22% in Louisiana, 20% in Maine, 35% in Nebraska and 36% in Washington, for an average 28 point margin of victory. These wins put Clinton and Obama in a virtual tie for pledged delegates. Definitive numbers are elusive, but estimates from the Associated Press give Clinton 1,095 to Obama's 1,070, while the New York Times puts Clinton at 1,043 to 921 over Obama and RealClear Politics gives Obama a 1,004 to 925 advantage over Clinton.

The District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia contests will award 237 delegates on a proportional basis, which, assuming polling data holds up, will break something like 132-105 in favor of Obama, providing the latter with a net gain of 27.

So, despite recent events indicating a cruising Obama and a faltering Clinton, a look at the numbers suggests a protracted contest in store for Democrats.

And that's as far as I'm going to go while the polls are open around the Potomac. I'll be back with some additional thoughts once the votes are counted.

Three Things You Can Say After Super Tuesday (and Three Things You Can't)

2008-02-06T06:19:00.000-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 349

The Day of Days is over. Did it settle anything? Yes. No. Maybe. Some Super Tuesday thoughts below!

Three Things You Can Say

1. Not-So-Super Tuesday: Numerically and geographically, last night was unquestionably the biggest night of party nominating contests this country has ever seen. But what has been billed for months as a political barn-burner for the ages, sure to determine the parties' nominees in one fell swoop, has in actual fact turned out to be more than a bit of a muddle.

This is particularly true on the Democratic side, so much so that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama even suggested they had carried the day. "I look forward to continuing our campaign and our debate about how to leave this country better off for the next generation," is as far as Clinton would go. Barack Obama was equally circumspect, saying only, "Our time has come. Our movement is real. And change is coming to America."

A survey of the Democratic results shows that such restraint from the candidates is entirely justified. Hillary Clinton won the most votes in the delegate-rich states of California, New York and New Jersey, along with Arkansas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and, Kennedy and Kerry endorsements of Obama notwithstanding, Massachusetts; and lest we forget, Clinton also won the electoral bellwether of American Samoa. Obama, however, won Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, New Mexico, Utah and his native Illinois, for a total of 14 states, scoring six more victories than Clinton. But delegate projections based on these results show the candidates coming to a near draw: Clinton is expected to add 584 delegates to her total, and Obama is expected to pick up 563. Further, both Clinton and Obama can claim advantages based on last night's results. As noted above, Clinton can claim bragging rights in the biggest states, while Obama can claim that he not only won more states, but that his average margin of victory in states that he won was decisively greater than Clinton's; Obama won his 14 states by an average of 26%, while Clinton's 8 victories were by an average of 17%.

So no slam dunks anywhere to be found in the Democratic race. What, then, of the Republicans?

At first glance, the Republican picture doesn't look much clearer than it does for the Democrats. John McCain won 9 states yesterday (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma), Mitt Romney won 7 states (Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and Utah), and Mike Huckabee won 5 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virginia). Nor does the average margin of victory for each candidate clarify things much: McCain's wins were by an average of 14%, Romney's were by an average of 29% (although his 84% margin in Mormon-dominated Utah significantly skews that number), and Huckabee's were by 10%.

But, unlike the Democratic contests that allocated delegates proportionally according to results in the popular vote, many of yesterday's GOP contests awarded all of a state's pledged delegates to whomever got the most votes statewide. And that was decisive for John McCain, who not only won more states that his rivals, but also won the states with the largest delegate prizes, including California and New York. Consequently, John McCain comes out of yesterday's voting having won 511 delegates, crushing Mitt Romney, who won 176, and Mike Huckabee, who scored 147 delegates.

So Tuesday was definitely big. But "Super?" Maybe not so much.

2. Clinton & McCain are the Frontrunners: As just noted, no candidate on either side landed a knock-out punch on their rivals yesterday, but on balance it is fair to say that Hillary Clinton and John McCain can now be considered the frontrunners in their respective races. McCain's winner-take-all victory in the states with the most delegates on offer definitely elevates him into the role of the Man to Beat on the Republican side. For Democrats, Hillary Clinton assumes the role of frontrunner largely because her firewalls - Hispanic voters in the Southwest, enduring loyalty to the Clinton brand in California, and party establishment support everywhere - held against Obama's surging momentum.

3. Yeah, But...:
See item 1 below. Anything in the "You Can Say" column today can easily slide into the "You Can't Say" column tomorrow.

Three Things You Can't Say

1. It's Over!: Er, it ain't. Hillary Clinton's victories last night are significant, and she can legitimately claim status as the frontrunner for the first time in this campaign. But next week holds Democratic contests in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, the latter two lopsided with African Americans and affluent white suburbanites that have been very good to Barack Obama so far this cycle. Big Obama victories next week can flip today's prevailing order on its head once again, which could then extend the Democratic race out to the March 4 contests and beyond.

For Republicans, McCain is now the Man to Beat, but that doesn't mean he can't be beaten. See item 2 below.

2. Conservative Voters Have Made Their Peace With McCain: Five states in the conservative homeland of the Deep South were up for grabs last night, and John McCain didn't win one of them. Given his delegate totals at this point, and the lack of a clear path to the nomination for either Romney or Huckabee, McCain could conceivably go on to win the Republican nomination without wrangling conservatives into his corner. Should that happen, and should McCain remain unable to remedy his weakness with the GOP base, his only hope would be that the Democrats do his conservative mobilization for him by nominating Hillary Clinton. Otherwise, he could find himself confronting the GOP nightmare scenario of a general election where Deep South Republicans stay home.

3. Victory in (whatever state) proves (whatever candidate) is more electable: Anyone making this claim on behalf of their chosen candidate, please take a deep breath and remember that these are party nomination contests. As such, the respective outcomes are either all red or all blue. A Democratic candidate will always win a Democratic primary, even in a state that hasn't gone blue in the last 15 elections, and a Republican candidate will likewise always win a Republican primary, even in a state that is so solidly Democratic that red crayons are no longer to be found in shops due to lack of demand.

Super Tuesday Preview: By The Numbers

2008-02-04T07:52:00.000-06:00

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 350

The mainstream print and electronic outlets have been running statements for the last 10 days or so to the effect of "Super Tuesday! 24 states hold Democratic and Republican primaries!" The state-by-state picture for tomorrow's voting is a bit more complex than that, so here are some handy facts to help clarify things.

Tomorrow, Democrats hold nominating contests (either primaries or caucuses) in 23 states; there's also one U.S. Territory (American Samoa) which will hold a Democratic caucus. On the GOP side, 21 states are holding nominating contests (either primaries or caucuses), and one other (West Virginia) will hold a state nominating convention.

For Democrats, 1,681 pledged delegates are at stake, roughly 83% of the total 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. For Republicans, there are 1,023 pledged delegates up for grabs out of a total of 1,191, or nearly 86% of the total needed for the GOP nomination. It isn't being called Super Tuesday for nothing.

(Note: total available delegates are 3,618 for Democrats and 2,159 for Republicans. Sanctioned delegates from Florida and Michigan not included.)

As of this writing, delegate totals for the remaining active candidates stand as follows:

Democrats
Hillary Clinton: 261
Barack Obama: 190

Repbublicans
Mike Huckabee: 40
John McCain: 93
Mitt Romney: 77

Details of state nominating contests are as follows. And as tempting as I admit it is, no, there will not be a quiz at the end of this post.

Alabama
Democrats: Primary, 52 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 45 delegates (winner takes all)

Alaska
Democrats: Caucus, 13 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Caucus, 26 delegates (proportionally allocated)

American Samoa
Democrats: Caucus, 3 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Arkansas
Democrats: Primary, 35 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 31 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Arizona
Democrats: Primary, 56 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 53 delegates (winner takes all)

California
Democrats: Primary, 370 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 170 delegates (winner takes all)

Colorado
Democrats: Caucus, 55 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Caucus, 43 delegates (presidential preference non-binding; delegate allocations will be made at county assemblies and district conventions)

Connecticut
Democrats: Primary, 48 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 27 delegates (winner takes all)

Delaware
Democrats: Primary, 15 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 18 delegates (winner takes all)

Georgia
Democrats: Primary, 87 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 72 delegates (winner takes all)

Idaho
Democrats: Caucus, 18 delegates (proportionally allocated)
(GOP holds its primary on May 27, 32 delegates. 26 delegates are proportionally allocated based on primary returns; the remaining 6 delegates are chosen at the state convention June 12-14)

Illinois
Democrats: Primary, 153 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 57 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Kansas Democratic caucus
Democrats: Caucus, 32 delegates (proportionally allocated)
(GOP holds its caucus on February 9, 36 delegates. Winner takes all.)

Massachusetts
Democrats: Primary, 93 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 40 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Minnesota
Democrats: Caucus, 72 delegates (47 awarded proportionally, 23 awarded based on winner of state wide returns)
Republicans: Caucus, 38 delegates (presidential preference non-binding; delegate allocations will be made at county assemblies and district conventions)

Missouri
Democrats: Primary, 72 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 58 delegates (winner takes all)

Montana
Republicans: Caucus, 25 delegates (winner takes all)
(Democratic primary will be on June 3, 16 delegates. 10 delegates awarded proportionally, 6 awarded based on winner of state wide returns)

New Jersey
Democrats: Primary, 107 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 52 delegates (winner takes all)

New Mexico
Democrats: Caucus, 26 delegates (proportionally allocated)
(GOP primary will be June 3, 29 delegates proportionally allocated)

New York
Democrats: Primary, 232 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 101 delegates (winner takes all)

North Dakota
Democrats: Caucus, 13 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Caucus, 23 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Oklahoma
Democrats: Primary, 38 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 38 delegates (winner takes all)

Tennessee
Democrats: Primary, 68 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 52 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Utah
Democrats: Primary, 23 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 36 delegates (winner takes all)

West Virginia
Republicans: Nominating Convention, 18 delegates
(Democrats hold their primary May 13, 28 delegates. 18 delegates awarded proportionally, 10 awarded based on winner of state wide returns)

(sources: National Association of Secretaries of State and Greenpapers.com. Delegate totals from the Washington Post.)